Modesty is a virtue.
Till one day it is not.
And quite frankly, if we were to be falsely modest about our July performance, as well as for our Year to Date Performance, globally, across all products, we would be being extremely unfair to our boys, girls and the computers, that turned in fairly eye-popping stuff this July.
And this year.
Our Team of Humans+ Machines really put up a show. You will see, in a moment
Global Funds Performance: July'20
The Global Freedom Fund SPC - Global Tactical Strategies SP (GFF-GTS) was up 7.9%.
The GMAAP was up 10.2%
Vs MSCI World that was up only 5.1%
And the S&P500 that was up 5.5%.
Global Funds Performance: Calendar 2020 Year to Date
GFF-GTS (US Dollar terms): +21.2%
GMAAP (US Dollar terms): +22.2%
Vs
MSCI World: -3.2%
S&P500: +1.2%
India PMS Performance: July '20
The Pure Equity India Super 50 (IS50) was up 9.3%
The Asset Allocation India Multi Asset Allocation Portfolio (IMAAP) was up 5.1% (this, quite frankly, is remarkable, given the IMAAP's very low volatility Profile)
While the Nifty was up 7.5%
And NSE 500 was up 6.6%
India PMS Performance: Calendar 2020 Year to Date
The IS50 is up 19.0%
The IMAAP is up 12.3%
Vs
NIFTY 50 that is down 9.0%
NIFTY 500 that is down 8.5%
That means that our equity portfolios are a full 30% ahead of the indexes for the year!
Global Performance Analysis
In the past 3 months, our global products have delivered ~35%.
This is way ahead of practically any broad index in the world.
So what exactly went on that delivered these numbers?
In one line, it is our Human+ Machine Model.
Some of you may recall that in the month of April, we put on the oil trade.
That trade has done very nicely since, and continues to do very well.
We have had a reasonable position in gold right through this year.
And we added copper and silver.
Of course, our commodities weighting remains ~ 8%, but all of these well chosen commodities have done extremely well in the past few weeks and months.
The US Dollar Weakness Trade
Our "Eagle Eye" system detected a weakening of the US dollar right from April itself, because it scours the world, looking for patterns, correlations, causalities (sometimes, even casualties) in various securities, markets, asset classes.
The US dollar weakness trade kept becoming clearer and clearer as our systems kept picking many, many signals from the entire world, adding to our Weight of Evidence (WOE) Model.
Which is exactly why we increased our positions in commodities (the inverse relationship between the USD and commodity prices was discovered by us, two decades back and was covered on the front page of The Wall Street Journal back then).
And in a cross-section of Emerging Markets.
All these tactical shifts have paid off handsomely last month and this entire year.
You see, that's the entire point of managing money: anybody can go and buy a narrow list of stocks/ single market, and look good for a limited period of time. BUT that also sets you up for a big fall/ underperformance sometime in the future.
The entire trick is to carefully construct a Portfolio of absolutely the best risk: return securities and positions from across the world and across asset classes. That's what our RARO Model does.
In July, we had massive winners like Overstock, Etsy, Square, China, Brazil, Silver, etc.
Emerging Markets delivered excellently for us in July ( again, this came out of the" Weak US Dollar" trade).
Overall, we continue to like every single position that we have right now.
And as everybody knows, the maximum attachment we have to anything, is a like" and that too for "only as long as the data supports it".
Never "love".
Our massive dashboard called the "Eagle Eye" keeps very close surveillance (all wholly legal. Probably), on the goings-on in this world, and keeps feeding the data back to our computers.
It's a pretty interesting world, we can tell you with great confidence.
And most important: these results were delivered with a very diversified (and hence low volatility, low risk) portfolio, with around 40+ positions, across the world.
India Performance Analysis
Our India numbers were... well... bloody good!
Again, on a wide basket of stocks.
None of this small, "concentrated" list of “high conviction" bs, for us.
July delivered us very good winners in the form of Essel Propack, Reliance Industries, IT services, Diagnostic chains, Payment play, Metal producers etc.
Our pharma bets were on fire.
Readers will know that we lagged the market in June and they will know why that happened: because we did not have the beaten down, riskier end of the market: the banks, NBFCs, real estate.
Those had run up in the month of June.
And in our June letter, this is what we had written:
Quote
It is not that we did not anticipate a rally in beaten down, high beta, riskier plays.
It was pretty clear and evident from the first week of May when our systems detected a broadening of the market rally globally.
Our systems also detected a rally in small cap stocks across the world.
The question in such situations is: should you do a large scale change in your portfolio to chase temporary Momentum in highly risky stocks in the market?
Logic and common sense will tell you: by all means do a bit.
But do not go the whole hog.
Because when the tide turns, these high beta names will come back and bite you in some of the most hurtful places in your body.
So we played the rally in India modestly.
And we are absolutely fine with lagging a market rally in which low quality, debt-laden, high beta names, rally.
These situations happen routinely and normally in markets and frankly we have seen dozens of them in our three decades of investing.
We just ride them out.
Unquote
It is precisely this discipline that helped us deliver these numbers in July.
And of course the proof of the pudding is in the eating: our India PMS is far, far ahead of the competition.
YTD, we are UP 19% even as the Indian market is DOWN nearly 9%.
There is absolutely nobody else who is within even catching distance of us
And our Human+ Machine delivers these Returns with the lowest possible risk.
We do not run "High Conviction" risk.
We do not run "Storification" risk.
We do not run "High Concentration" risk.
And yet we deliver.
Or maybe, that's why we deliver.
That is the beauty of our proprietary Human+Machine investment model.
For those who aren't invested with us, but want in, just drop us a line via this link and we will get in touch quicker than a Bumrah Yorker.
By the way, you can also WhatsApp us on +91 8850169753
Chat soon!
From Your Friends at First Global
Trusted Financial Advisors to some of the world's largest Funds, Institutions & Family Offices, for 30 years
Economists Think Dollar's Fall May Explain the Recent ‘Rally’ by Steve Liesman
Einstein taught us about relativity in nature. Now come Devina Mehra and Shankar Sharma of First Global to teach us about relativity in financial markets -- and raise some serious questions about just what is driving stock prices.
First Global reports are quite credible and, on occasion, more than that.
What prompts this mention is Intel's earnings report and the fact that First Global has had a pretty good bead on the company and its stock.
AMD up again following First Global upgrade to ‘buy’ (AMD) By Tomi Kilgore
Analyst Kuldeep Koul at First Global upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to "buy" from "outperform," given the "exceptional traction" that the chipmaker's Opteron line of processors has been able to get.
Baidu Climbs on First Global’s ‘Outperform’ Outlook
Baidu Inc., the operator of China’s most-used Internet search engine, rose to the highest price in two weeks after First Global rated the shares “outperform? in new coverage.
Personality counts: Walmart's frugal, but Target charms
"It's better to take a slight hit on [profit] margins and keep on moving and inventing," says First Global Securities. And at least for now, Target is inventing in a way that appeals to consumers with money to spend.
Dead Batteries
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
Bipinchandra Dugam @bipinchandra90
@devinamehra @firtglobalsec
invested in both GFF-GTS and Super I50. Thank you very much for such wonderful investing experience with completely new approach. In my 15years of investing first product I felt which close to what customer want.
Shishir Kapadia @shishirkapadia1
@firstglobalsec @devinamehra
by far you are the best, I have not come across transparency, acumen, global expertise, exposure, protection of capital, delivering return from any fund/ fund managers. Invested very small size in 3 products will keep on increasing it over the period
Piyush Bhargava @PiyushB88762654
@devinamehra @firstglobalsec
Thanks you team FG specially Devina, my investment doubled in less than 3 years in SDPB As a investors & PMS distributor of your product looking to have a long-term relationship with the company.
@KarmathNaveen the person with whom I always interact
Sumeet Goel @GoelSumeet
Very happy & relaxed to be invested with first global pms
Shishir Kapadia@shishirkapadia1
Congratulations on super performance, above all transparency and systematic process are unmatchable.
One must opt this, if person consider him/her self as an investor. Very happy to be part of this since invested. FG has managed worst year (ie 2022) so efficiently and skillfully.
SY @SachinY95185924
With so much of volatility in the market, risk management is very important part & considering that FG is doing awesome work!!! Kudos to you Chief
Amit Shukla @amitTalksHere
Truly outstanding. As a retail subscriber to #fghum #smallcase, I can vouch for the Nifty beating returns (8% vs 3%) in last 1 year. Keep up the awesome work @firstglobalsec
We can load above testimonials on site as a scroller, and just below that we can add a section for compliments . Below tweets are comments and praises are related to our content, performance and some our direct compliments to you.
ADIT PATEL @ADITPAT11226924
Good team...
Special mention @KarmathNaveen .. he is soo helpful anytime of the day or night..
Hindustani @highmettle
Bought Peace with FG-Hum.Moving all funds from DIY investing to well managed and diversified PF at low cost.
It has doubled almost, excellent pick.Every small investor must invest in her FG-HUM Smallcase.
Suresh Nair @Suresh_Nair_23
I have 8 small cases and your has been the most rewarding ones .. thank you Devina.
Sayed Masood @SayedM375
There is absolutely no doubt that she is one of the best investors of India in modern times but more importantly, she shares the most sincere and sane advice with retail investors.
SY @SachinY95185924
Wow Superb Returns🔥 Congratulations Chief for being Number 1 among all PMS!!!
You are one of the sharpest mind in Global Stock Market
AnupamM @moitraanupam
Congratulations Devina, results talk in itself!
Abhishek @simplyabhi21
Congratulations ma’am @devinamehra ! The consistency you have in maintaining the top rank position is outstanding! 👏
Mihir Shah @Mihir41Shah
We are learning More about markets (& Life ) thanks to U than we learnt in our Professional courses.A BIg Thank You, Wish all get Teachers Like You!!
Sumit Sharma @MediaSumit
"The ability to be comfortable with being outside consensus is a superpower in investing...and in life." Devina ji hits the nail on its head!
Majid Ahamed @MajidAhamed1
Congratulations @devinamehra mam! All the best for long term returns as well.
Vinay Kumar @VinayKu05949123
This is the wonderful session I have ever attended till date. One of the most fruitful hour of my life. Devina madam, ur clarity on financial mkts is simply superb.The way u portray the facts supported by "data" about stock mkts is really astonishing.I will listen again.Thanks.
VIJAY @drippingashes
I loved to read your journey, insight and philosophy. It's a pleasure to read and know of your takes on market and life.
MNC🏹 @Focus_SME
Check & follow @devinamehra's timeline for lots of post debunking such rosy stories. Also, she gives amazing 🤩 sector directions/hints.
KLN Murthy @KLNMurthy2016
Good actionable insights, great article!
Suresh Nair @gkumarsuresh
Devina Madam is simply terrific... good knowledge, straight and simple thinking.
Very difficult to emulate such traits. I listen her past interviews from youtube.
Respect...!!!!
DD @AliensDelight
One of the brightest minds in the world of finance :)
Radhakrishnan Chonat @RCxNair
📣 Calling all investors! Just had an incredible interview with @devinamehra, Chairperson and MD of First Global. We discussed the importance of global diversification, effective asset allocation, and the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Trust me, you don't want to miss this!
siddarthmohta @siddarthmohta
Excellent performance. Flexibility is the key as you have mentioned it earlier also. Cannot have finite rules for infinite mkt opportunities.
Boom (বুম)@Booombaastic
To be honest, the insights which Devina madam brings in is very enriching..have learnt a lot from them...
Himanssh Kukreja @Himansh02428907
One of the most accurate analysts :)
I always look forward to you interviews mam
Abhijeet Deshpande @AbhijeetD2018
Madam, It is always a treat to read your insight, not only on business but on other topics also!!
Dada.AI @dada_on_twit
Thanks for this wisdom ma'am. Always love hearing your thoughts on everything equity. :-)
adil @zinndadil
Excellent points!
Can clearly feel this thread is a product of marination of many books and years of experience. 👍
Kamal thakur @Kamalgt10
Superb !!
Your knowledge, analysis & articulation is simply great 👍
Tanay @Tanay36232730
Follower on Twitter and Subsciber on YouTube of First Global, really helping me in my investment desicion. Thanks
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