Our August '20 Performance:
So how did we do?
Well...umm..err...
We F......n did it.
Again.
Look we understand.
Our tone might look like we are preening.
But look again: why on earth should we not, considering that we have had another very, very solid month?
Our philosophy is a bit different from the usual that you will hear: Be mild. Be modest. Be understated.
We kinda made peace with the fact that we might be many things but not quite the ones above.
You know why?
Because if you are not going to share your happiness with your friends ( we're all friends, right?) in your happiest times, who are you going to share it with?
So let's start the sharing.
Global Funds' Performance: August '20
The Global Freedom Fund SPC - Global Tactical Strategies SP (GFF-GTS) was up 7.6%.
Our Global Portfolio product, the GMAAP was up 7.3%
Vs MSCI World that was up only 6.0%
Global Funds Performance: Calendar 2020 Year to Date
GFF-GTS (US Dollar terms): +30.4%
GMAAP (US Dollar terms): +31.2%
Vs
MSCI World: +2.7%
S&P500: +7.4%
AND we achieved the higher returns with lower volatility too - something we are are even more proud of!
Annualised volatility was 19-26% for our products in this turbulent year versus 29.2% for the MSCI World and 37.3% for the S&P 500!
India PMS Performance: August '20
The Pure Equity India Super 50 (IS50) was up 8.0%
While the Nifty was up 2.8%
NSE 500 was up 3.7%
The Asset Allocation India Multi Asset Allocation Portfolio (IMAAP) was up 2.7% (this, quite frankly, is remarkable, given the IMAAP's very low volatility Profile)
And CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index was up 2.2% (this is our Benchmark for the IMAAP)
India PMS Performance: Calendar 2020 Year to Date
The IS50 is up 28.5%
Vs
NIFTY 50 that is down 6.4%
NIFTY 500 that is down 5.1%
The IMAAP is up 15.3%
Vs
CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index that's up 5.0%
Once again we have done even better on a volatility adjusted basis!
The annualized volatility for IS 50 was 20.9% as against 34.6% for the NSE 500 and nearly 37% for the Nifty. The volatility for the IMAAP was a mere 8.8% against 30% for the CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index.
Returns÷Stress
You see, it does come down to the basics: what are the returns divided by stress ( volatility=stress).
Anybody can make money buying a few stocks and then, riding their luck.
That's great cocktail party talk ( or let's say, Zoom cocktail party talk).
But that's not Investing.
The key lies in crafting a global portfolio that, under even the most trying circumstances, achieves the normally unachievable: deliver pretty acceptable returns with more than acceptable peace-of-mind.
That's really what we keep refining every single day.
Global Performance Analysis
The Weak Dollar Trade continues
In August, we had massive winners like Overstock, Apple, Square, China, Japan, Silver, etc.
But The Key also lay in our April- May identification of the weak Dollar Trade.
That Trade led to a lot of things getting clearer as this year has progressed.
At the time of writing this note, the Euro is nudging 1.20.
We saw this coming and built positions in European indices.
We have a reasonable, 15-16% exposure to Chinese stocks.
Are we worried?
Of course. We are good old-fashioned worry-warts.
But...
We also bought a natural hedge, in the shape of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
You guys probably know that we are partial to the stock exchange business. We own quite a few across the world.
But the HKEX is also a natural hedge against any further US-China tensions: Chinese companies are and will continue flocking to this Exchange.
Imagine what that does to this stock's fortunes.
Gold, Silver, Oil: The Trend is on The Mend
All these positions continue unchanged and will continue till the time we detect any end to this Trend.
And do finally remember:
These results were delivered with a very diversified portfolio, with around 40-50+ positions, across the world.
India Performance Analysis
Our India numbers were... well... bloody good! (Sorry, this is a repeat from the July letter).
On a wide, wide basket of stocks. (Kind of a repeat of the July letter).
None of this "small list of high conviction" bs, for us. (Again, this is a straight lift from our July letter)
August delivered us very good winners in the form of Essel Propack, Alkyl Amines, Aarti Drugs, Chemicals, Metal Producers etc
We played the Payments Trade in India via SBI Cards.
And this is because we own several payment companies globally.
Now you begin to see how our combined Global and Indian footprint keeps helping every single one of our investors: they mesh like Yin and Yang. Or whatever meshes this well.
The Trade That Changed
Back in May and June, when the whole world (in India, that is) was talking about sticking to "safety" (in the shape of large banks, FMCG, consumer plays, etcetera), our models sensed that the big, big money was going to be made in the Mid Cap space.
We are nothing if not Hare-ish.
We cut our positions in Hindustan Lever, Asian Paints, etc.
We built positions in the next line up of really good names in the mid cap space.
And they worked out quite satisfactorily.
We understand that you are itching to know where we think the market is going.
Truth be told: "It will be volatile" 😉.
Sorry. Just feeling a bit kiddish.
Frankly, and seriously, we remain optimistic about the stocks we own.
And that's what matters, doesn't it?
And of course the proof of the pudding is in the eating: our India PMS is far, far ahead of the competition.
Take a look at the comparative Performance (till July, 2020, which we will update once we have August numbers for everybody else)
And our Human+ Machine delivers these Returns with the lowest possible risk.
We do not run "High conviction" risk.
We do not run "Storification" risk.
We do not run "High concentration" risk.
And yet we deliver.
Or maybe, that's why we deliver.
That is the beauty of our proprietary Human+Machine investment model.
For those who aren't invested with us, but want in, just drop us a line on https://bit.ly/2V0RxAx and we will get in touch quicker than a Bumrah yorker
By the way, you can also WhatsApp us on +91 8850169753
Chat soon!
From Your Friends at First Global
Trusted Financial Advisors to some of the world's largest Funds, Institutions & Family Offices, for 30 years
Economists Think Dollar's Fall May Explain the Recent ‘Rally’ by Steve Liesman
Einstein taught us about relativity in nature. Now come Devina Mehra and Shankar Sharma of First Global to teach us about relativity in financial markets -- and raise some serious questions about just what is driving stock prices.
First Global reports are quite credible and, on occasion, more than that.
What prompts this mention is Intel's earnings report and the fact that First Global has had a pretty good bead on the company and its stock.
AMD up again following First Global upgrade to ‘buy’ (AMD) By Tomi Kilgore
Analyst Kuldeep Koul at First Global upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to "buy" from "outperform," given the "exceptional traction" that the chipmaker's Opteron line of processors has been able to get.
Baidu Climbs on First Global’s ‘Outperform’ Outlook
Baidu Inc., the operator of China’s most-used Internet search engine, rose to the highest price in two weeks after First Global rated the shares “outperform? in new coverage.
Personality counts: Walmart's frugal, but Target charms
"It's better to take a slight hit on [profit] margins and keep on moving and inventing," says First Global Securities. And at least for now, Target is inventing in a way that appeals to consumers with money to spend.
Dead Batteries
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
Bipinchandra Dugam @bipinchandra90
@devinamehra @firtglobalsec
invested in both GFF-GTS and Super I50. Thank you very much for such wonderful investing experience with completely new approach. In my 15years of investing first product I felt which close to what customer want.
Shishir Kapadia @shishirkapadia1
@firstglobalsec @devinamehra
by far you are the best, I have not come across transparency, acumen, global expertise, exposure, protection of capital, delivering return from any fund/ fund managers. Invested very small size in 3 products will keep on increasing it over the period
Piyush Bhargava @PiyushB88762654
@devinamehra @firstglobalsec
Thanks you team FG specially Devina, my investment doubled in less than 3 years in SDPB As a investors & PMS distributor of your product looking to have a long-term relationship with the company.
@KarmathNaveen the person with whom I always interact
Sumeet Goel @GoelSumeet
Very happy & relaxed to be invested with first global pms
Shishir Kapadia@shishirkapadia1
Congratulations on super performance, above all transparency and systematic process are unmatchable.
One must opt this, if person consider him/her self as an investor. Very happy to be part of this since invested. FG has managed worst year (ie 2022) so efficiently and skillfully.
SY @SachinY95185924
With so much of volatility in the market, risk management is very important part & considering that FG is doing awesome work!!! Kudos to you Chief
Amit Shukla @amitTalksHere
Truly outstanding. As a retail subscriber to #fghum #smallcase, I can vouch for the Nifty beating returns (8% vs 3%) in last 1 year. Keep up the awesome work @firstglobalsec
We can load above testimonials on site as a scroller, and just below that we can add a section for compliments . Below tweets are comments and praises are related to our content, performance and some our direct compliments to you.
ADIT PATEL @ADITPAT11226924
Good team...
Special mention @KarmathNaveen .. he is soo helpful anytime of the day or night..
Hindustani @highmettle
Bought Peace with FG-Hum.Moving all funds from DIY investing to well managed and diversified PF at low cost.
It has doubled almost, excellent pick.Every small investor must invest in her FG-HUM Smallcase.
Suresh Nair @Suresh_Nair_23
I have 8 small cases and your has been the most rewarding ones .. thank you Devina.
Sayed Masood @SayedM375
There is absolutely no doubt that she is one of the best investors of India in modern times but more importantly, she shares the most sincere and sane advice with retail investors.
SY @SachinY95185924
Wow Superb Returns🔥 Congratulations Chief for being Number 1 among all PMS!!!
You are one of the sharpest mind in Global Stock Market
AnupamM @moitraanupam
Congratulations Devina, results talk in itself!
Abhishek @simplyabhi21
Congratulations ma’am @devinamehra ! The consistency you have in maintaining the top rank position is outstanding! 👏
Mihir Shah @Mihir41Shah
We are learning More about markets (& Life ) thanks to U than we learnt in our Professional courses.A BIg Thank You, Wish all get Teachers Like You!!
Sumit Sharma @MediaSumit
"The ability to be comfortable with being outside consensus is a superpower in investing...and in life." Devina ji hits the nail on its head!
Majid Ahamed @MajidAhamed1
Congratulations @devinamehra mam! All the best for long term returns as well.
Vinay Kumar @VinayKu05949123
This is the wonderful session I have ever attended till date. One of the most fruitful hour of my life. Devina madam, ur clarity on financial mkts is simply superb.The way u portray the facts supported by "data" about stock mkts is really astonishing.I will listen again.Thanks.
VIJAY @drippingashes
I loved to read your journey, insight and philosophy. It's a pleasure to read and know of your takes on market and life.
MNC🏹 @Focus_SME
Check & follow @devinamehra's timeline for lots of post debunking such rosy stories. Also, she gives amazing 🤩 sector directions/hints.
KLN Murthy @KLNMurthy2016
Good actionable insights, great article!
Suresh Nair @gkumarsuresh
Devina Madam is simply terrific... good knowledge, straight and simple thinking.
Very difficult to emulate such traits. I listen her past interviews from youtube.
Respect...!!!!
DD @AliensDelight
One of the brightest minds in the world of finance :)
Radhakrishnan Chonat @RCxNair
📣 Calling all investors! Just had an incredible interview with @devinamehra, Chairperson and MD of First Global. We discussed the importance of global diversification, effective asset allocation, and the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Trust me, you don't want to miss this!
siddarthmohta @siddarthmohta
Excellent performance. Flexibility is the key as you have mentioned it earlier also. Cannot have finite rules for infinite mkt opportunities.
Boom (বুম)@Booombaastic
To be honest, the insights which Devina madam brings in is very enriching..have learnt a lot from them...
Himanssh Kukreja @Himansh02428907
One of the most accurate analysts :)
I always look forward to you interviews mam
Abhijeet Deshpande @AbhijeetD2018
Madam, It is always a treat to read your insight, not only on business but on other topics also!!
Dada.AI @dada_on_twit
Thanks for this wisdom ma'am. Always love hearing your thoughts on everything equity. :-)
adil @zinndadil
Excellent points!
Can clearly feel this thread is a product of marination of many books and years of experience. 👍
Kamal thakur @Kamalgt10
Superb !!
Your knowledge, analysis & articulation is simply great 👍
Tanay @Tanay36232730
Follower on Twitter and Subsciber on YouTube of First Global, really helping me in my investment desicion. Thanks
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