Our November '20 Performance
Global Funds' Performance: November '20
The First Global Global Freedom Fund - Global Tactical Strategies (FG GFF-GTS) is up 0.6%
Our Global Portfolio product, the GMAAP is up 2.7%
Vs
MSCI World that is up 11.9%
Global Funds' Performance: Calendar 2020 YTD
FG GFF-GTS (US Dollar terms): +30.3%
GMAAP (US Dollar terms): +29.9%
Vs
MSCI World: +8.5%
The S&P 500: +11.2%
These numbers have come with relatively low volatility.
Annualised volatility has been 22-28% for our products in this turbulent year versus 31% for the MSCI World and 39% for the S&P 500!
India PMS Performance: November '20
The Pure Equity India Super 50 (IS50) was up 5.1%
While NSE 500 was up 11.9%
The Asset Allocation India Multi Asset Allocation Portfolio (IMAAP) was up 2.8%
And CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index was up 5.6% (this is our Benchmark for the IMAAP)
India PMS Performance: 2020 YTD
The IS50 is up 25.5%
Vs
NIFTY 50 that is up 7.1%
NIFTY 500 that is up 7.6%
We are now more than 18% ahead of the market YTD!
The IMAAP is up 13%
Vs
CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index that's up 10.7%
Once again, we have done even better on a volatility adjusted basis.
The annualised volatility for IS50 is 19.3% as against 34.4% for the NSE 500 and nearly 37% for the Nifty. The volatility for the IMAAP is a mere 10.6% against 16.9% for the CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index.
There are two ways to look at the month of November…
One is to wring one's hands in despair, saying "The Market is stupid". That's what amateurs do.
The other way is to say "A rally in the beaten down Sectors and Markets across the world was very much on the cards at some point this year. It happens in every single year in which there has been a major dislocation. It does not mean that the market is stupid or irrational. It simply means that every dog has its day at some point in a market cycle. November was the month in which all the global dogs had their day.
Take a look at this data for November and year to date performance:
Best Performing Markets in November and their CYTD Performance
|
Sr No. |
Indices |
Country |
$ Change Nov (%) |
$ Change CYTD (%) |
|
1 |
Athens General Composite |
Greece |
32.52% |
-14.18% |
|
2 |
Cyprus Main Market |
Cyprus |
31.08% |
-21.02% |
|
3 |
IBEX 35 |
Spain |
28.20% |
-9.86% |
|
4 |
WIG20 |
Poland |
27.66% |
-14.50% |
|
5 |
ATX |
Austria |
27.27% |
-14.56% |
|
6 |
Budapest SE |
Hungary |
26.11% |
-14.47% |
|
7 |
FTSE MIB |
Italy |
25.91% |
0.24% |
|
8 |
Bovespa |
Brazil |
25.53% |
-29.15% |
|
9 |
SET |
Thailand |
23.44% |
-9.21% |
|
10 |
BEL 20 |
Belgium |
23.40% |
-1.07% |
|
11 |
CAC 40 |
France |
23.02% |
-1.67% |
|
12 |
PX |
Czech Republic |
22.41% |
-10.56% |
|
13 |
BIST 100 |
Turkey |
22.38% |
-12.12% |
|
14 |
Euro Stoxx 50 |
Germany |
20.91% |
-0.27% |
|
15 |
RTSI |
Russia |
20.19% |
-18.26% |
The common theme? Almost all the markets that did well in November are actually among the major laggards for the Year!
It was pretty much the same story as far as sectors are concerned.
Best Performing Global Sectors in November and their CYTD Performance
|
Sr No. |
Industry/Sector |
$ Change Nov (%) |
$ Change CYTD (%) |
|
1 |
Energy Equipment & Services |
30.21% |
-33.99% |
|
2 |
Aerospace & Defense |
26.67% |
-14.98% |
|
3 |
Marine |
26.36% |
36.02% |
|
4 |
Airlines |
26.19% |
-27.61% |
|
5 |
Automobiles |
24.26% |
42.13% |
|
6 |
Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
22.00% |
-11.25% |
|
7 |
Consumer Finance |
20.66% |
-2.95% |
|
8 |
Transportation Infrastructure |
17.86% |
-12.54% |
|
9 |
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure |
17.73% |
-4.46% |
|
10 |
Thrifts & Mortgage Finance |
17.35% |
-7.83% |
As is amply clear, November saw a rally in all beaten down areas ("The Dogs") of the global markets: Emerging Markets, Aviation, Banks, Hospitality, Energy.
And almost nobody sensible has had (or should have had) these sectors or markets this entire year!
Everything that worked till October, stopped working in November.
Well, stuff happens in markets.
Should we have played these laggards? Absolutely.
Could we have played these laggards?
Next to impossible.
Our Global Performance Analysis
If you folks recollect, we had a great October in which we closed up 2.1% in our First Global Global Freedom Fund - Global Tactical Strategies (FG GFF-GTS), when globally markets were down around 4%.
The way we managed to do this was simple: we cut the risk in our portfolio, we increased our cash positions and we kept some portfolio insurance.
And in the first ten days of November these very strategies that helped us come out positive in October, turned savagely on us!
The first week of November saw the Biden Rally. A 6-7% rally in two days, based on an election outcome, that most thought, would be negative for markets.
Well, we are nothing if we are not conservative: avoidance of significant loss is our overarching principle in investing.
Now, look at how things looked before the US Election results came in. There was likelihood of a close election which could have stretched out uncertainty for months (this is what the options markets were pricing in). Then there was the possibility that markets would take Biden's coming as a negative given his stated stance on economic and taxation policies.
Before an event happens, decisions have to be taken based on the probability of various outcomes.
Just because a low probability event: in this case a clear Biden victory and a Market Rally thereafter became a reality doesn't mean the decision to be conservative was wrong - more so when substantial gains had been made through the year which could be locked in rather than be risked further.
And when we look back on the way we were positioned end of October, with the uncertainties around American elections, we would still have remained positioned exactly like that.
And then, exactly a week after that, came the news of the Pfizer vaccine.
That changed the trade completely: Dogs became Gods. Gods became Dogs.
Therefore essentially, November came down to just three days in which the market made a big up-move.
And we sat out those days because of the fact that we were positioned very conservatively.
How are we positioned right now?
Well, we have over the last 3 months, cut back on our US Technology exposure quite substantially. We do hold some that we like, like Fiverr, Upwork, Roku, Qualcomm, Square and some others. But we don't have Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft anymore.
In the non-tech space, we have had Nike for a while, and that's been great. So have been FedEx, Sherwin Williams, and Target. An addition was Starbucks.
Overall, our US exposure looks very good. Very balanced.
Our exposure to Japan has been rising consistently since July. And we have been handsomely rewarded for it. Some stocks in Japan have terrific.
And of course, we have core positions in Taiwan and South Korea, both of which, along with Japan, form our three largest country holdings.
China has been okayish. The froth in Chinese tech has been becoming worrisome, and as you know, we worry a lot already.
Overall, we remain conservatively positioned even now.
In cricket, on tricky tracks, one doesn't look for runs. One looks to play out time, with minimal damage. This requires cutting out risky shots. It needs avoiding temptations.
That's exactly how we are playing right now. After a mad 50-60% rally last few months, it's simply unwise to keep expecting a repeat of this, back to back.
Because, in investing, like in cricket, the ball does go soft. The pitch does ease up. The conditions do become more conducive to aggressive play.
But one can take advantage of these only if one has wickets in hand.
We are keeping our wickets in hand right now.
Our India Performance Analysis
India has been a classic Dog market all year. Actually, for the last few years.
And so, in November, it had its day, with banks contributing most of the rally.
We fared reasonably well, keeping our heads down, and playing steadily without trying to play the downtrodden.
A +5% November performance, without compromising on our morals/ principles, is just fine with us.
And the cumulative Performance for the past three months, up ~ 10% is decent, keeping in mind that we have avoided the high beta end of the market completely.
We have a great portfolio of excellent stocks that exhibit all the factors that we like.
We are happy to remain chaste.
Despite the many temptations on offer.
Like in November.
We are particularly proud of the relatively low risk of the portfolio - the volatility of IS50 is 19% vs 34% for NSE 500!
Avoid the Big Losses
Play Everything. Believe Nothing
Stay Hungry. Stay Hare-ish
Take a look at the Comparative Performance till November 2020.
And our Human+ Machine delivers these Returns with the lowest possible risk.
As we've said before
We do not run "High Conviction" risk.
We do not run "Storification" risk.
We do not run "High Concentration" risk.
And yet we deliver.
Or maybe, that's why we deliver.
That is the beauty of our proprietary Human+Machine investment model.
For those who aren't invested with us, but want in, just drop us a line on https://bit.ly/2V0RxAx and we will get in touch faster than the rally in Greece, in November!
By the way, you can also WhatsApp us on +91 8850169753
Chat soon!
From Your Friends at First Global
Trusted Financial Advisors to some of the world's largest Funds, Institutions & Family Offices, for 30 years
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Dead Batteries
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
Bipinchandra Dugam @bipinchandra90
@devinamehra @firtglobalsec
invested in both GFF-GTS and Super I50. Thank you very much for such wonderful investing experience with completely new approach. In my 15years of investing first product I felt which close to what customer want.
Shishir Kapadia @shishirkapadia1
@firstglobalsec @devinamehra
by far you are the best, I have not come across transparency, acumen, global expertise, exposure, protection of capital, delivering return from any fund/ fund managers. Invested very small size in 3 products will keep on increasing it over the period
Piyush Bhargava @PiyushB88762654
@devinamehra @firstglobalsec
Thanks you team FG specially Devina, my investment doubled in less than 3 years in SDPB As a investors & PMS distributor of your product looking to have a long-term relationship with the company.
@KarmathNaveen the person with whom I always interact
Sumeet Goel @GoelSumeet
Very happy & relaxed to be invested with first global pms
Shishir Kapadia@shishirkapadia1
Congratulations on super performance, above all transparency and systematic process are unmatchable.
One must opt this, if person consider him/her self as an investor. Very happy to be part of this since invested. FG has managed worst year (ie 2022) so efficiently and skillfully.
SY @SachinY95185924
With so much of volatility in the market, risk management is very important part & considering that FG is doing awesome work!!! Kudos to you Chief
Amit Shukla @amitTalksHere
Truly outstanding. As a retail subscriber to #fghum #smallcase, I can vouch for the Nifty beating returns (8% vs 3%) in last 1 year. Keep up the awesome work @firstglobalsec
We can load above testimonials on site as a scroller, and just below that we can add a section for compliments . Below tweets are comments and praises are related to our content, performance and some our direct compliments to you.
ADIT PATEL @ADITPAT11226924
Good team...
Special mention @KarmathNaveen .. he is soo helpful anytime of the day or night..
Hindustani @highmettle
Bought Peace with FG-Hum.Moving all funds from DIY investing to well managed and diversified PF at low cost.
It has doubled almost, excellent pick.Every small investor must invest in her FG-HUM Smallcase.
Suresh Nair @Suresh_Nair_23
I have 8 small cases and your has been the most rewarding ones .. thank you Devina.
Sayed Masood @SayedM375
There is absolutely no doubt that she is one of the best investors of India in modern times but more importantly, she shares the most sincere and sane advice with retail investors.
SY @SachinY95185924
Wow Superb Returns🔥 Congratulations Chief for being Number 1 among all PMS!!!
You are one of the sharpest mind in Global Stock Market
AnupamM @moitraanupam
Congratulations Devina, results talk in itself!
Abhishek @simplyabhi21
Congratulations ma’am @devinamehra ! The consistency you have in maintaining the top rank position is outstanding! 👏
Mihir Shah @Mihir41Shah
We are learning More about markets (& Life ) thanks to U than we learnt in our Professional courses.A BIg Thank You, Wish all get Teachers Like You!!
Sumit Sharma @MediaSumit
"The ability to be comfortable with being outside consensus is a superpower in investing...and in life." Devina ji hits the nail on its head!
Majid Ahamed @MajidAhamed1
Congratulations @devinamehra mam! All the best for long term returns as well.
Vinay Kumar @VinayKu05949123
This is the wonderful session I have ever attended till date. One of the most fruitful hour of my life. Devina madam, ur clarity on financial mkts is simply superb.The way u portray the facts supported by "data" about stock mkts is really astonishing.I will listen again.Thanks.
VIJAY @drippingashes
I loved to read your journey, insight and philosophy. It's a pleasure to read and know of your takes on market and life.
MNC🏹 @Focus_SME
Check & follow @devinamehra's timeline for lots of post debunking such rosy stories. Also, she gives amazing 🤩 sector directions/hints.
KLN Murthy @KLNMurthy2016
Good actionable insights, great article!
Suresh Nair @gkumarsuresh
Devina Madam is simply terrific... good knowledge, straight and simple thinking.
Very difficult to emulate such traits. I listen her past interviews from youtube.
Respect...!!!!
DD @AliensDelight
One of the brightest minds in the world of finance :)
Radhakrishnan Chonat @RCxNair
📣 Calling all investors! Just had an incredible interview with @devinamehra, Chairperson and MD of First Global. We discussed the importance of global diversification, effective asset allocation, and the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Trust me, you don't want to miss this!
siddarthmohta @siddarthmohta
Excellent performance. Flexibility is the key as you have mentioned it earlier also. Cannot have finite rules for infinite mkt opportunities.
Boom (বুম)@Booombaastic
To be honest, the insights which Devina madam brings in is very enriching..have learnt a lot from them...
Himanssh Kukreja @Himansh02428907
One of the most accurate analysts :)
I always look forward to you interviews mam
Abhijeet Deshpande @AbhijeetD2018
Madam, It is always a treat to read your insight, not only on business but on other topics also!!
Dada.AI @dada_on_twit
Thanks for this wisdom ma'am. Always love hearing your thoughts on everything equity. :-)
adil @zinndadil
Excellent points!
Can clearly feel this thread is a product of marination of many books and years of experience. 👍
Kamal thakur @Kamalgt10
Superb !!
Your knowledge, analysis & articulation is simply great 👍
Tanay @Tanay36232730
Follower on Twitter and Subsciber on YouTube of First Global, really helping me in my investment desicion. Thanks
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