You always knew it...or did you?

There are those who think that the Fed's 50 basis points (0.5 percent) hike was no big deal & was 'always on the cards' and we're glad it wasn't 75 bps or 1 percent point.

Worth reminding yourself that one, the last time a 50 bps hike happened was over 2 decades ago, in the year 2000.

Two, a series of 50 bps hikes would've been unthinkable a year, or even 6 months, ago.

This is your brain tricking you with the Classic Hindsight Bias where once something happens, we are convinced that we always knew it would.

Holds for everything from company prospects to election results.

Of course, the Russia-Ukarine war was going to happen. The writing was on the wall. Everyone knew Trump was going to win in 2016 (or lose in 2020). And so it goes.

The doubts, the uncertainty, even the fact that you may have had an exactly opposite view are all wiped out when you look back.

This is why it is worth documenting what you think about the future, your logic for investing in a company, your confidence level in a particular outcome etc in real time ...because after it happens it is so very easy to convince yourself that you knew that it was going to happen.

From the desk of Devina Mehra

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