Why we decided to be overweight a particular sector and how it worked out for us
We often speak about our extensive techstack called FG Exotech with a series of subsystems like Turbo™, Glocom™ and Agreement in Motion™ Systems that helps us identify every attractive opportunity in the Global as well as Indian market.
These are a combination of top down and bottom up systems and identify opportunities like the entry into the Metals space in June 2020, Global Marine space in early 2021, Agri and Energy space f...
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The All-important question of investing: When to sell a stock.
Sometimes I think there is a parallel between the investment guidance available to investors and the Abhimanyu story in the Mahabharata.
Just as Abhimanyu knew how to get into the Chakravyuh formation of warriors, but not how to get out of it, almost all the investment advice out there is about how to identify stock to buy. Unfortunately, not even 10% of it deals with when to sell and needless to say, you cannot book investment profits without s...
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First Global started with Rs. 10,000, some 30 years ago.
Devina Mehra, with no family wealth, made this tiny capital into large, multi-country businesses.
Through Learning. Came the Earning. In the markets, there is no lasting wealth without knowledge which usually comes from reading. Of course, now videos, podcasts etc. are also available.
Here are some books that you may enjoy, whether you are just starting on your investment journey or are already further along the way.
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How to start Your Investment Journey?
Let's start from the very beginning...a very good place to start, as the song goes.
How do you start when you plan a normal journey?
If you go into Google Maps or whichever is your favorite app, you put in the destination, of course, where you want to go, say an address in Sarojini Nagar or Lokhandwala or Koramangala. But that alone will not be enough for the app to start giving you the direction...
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Can you have market risk if you are not even in the markets? the surprising answer from Devina Mehra.
The biggest risk in the equity market can be - not being in the market at all. Why? You'll be surprised | Devina Mehra on share markets.
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The ultimate hack to get perfect returns on your investments | by Devina Mehra.
Find the ultimate hack for getting perfect returns on your investments. The key to building your portfolio, by Devina Mehra.
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How to use pe ratio to analyse & invest in cyclical stocks | by Devina Mehra.
Learn how to use Price to Earning Ratio correctly for analysing and investing in clyclical stocks by Devina Mehra.
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The most crucial place to look at in a company financial statements | by Devina Mehra.
Only looking at sales growth, margins, earnings growth and EPS is not enough. Learn how to understand company financial statement by Devina Mehra.
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How interest rates impact the valuation of stocks & the stock market | Devina Mehra explains.
In this video Devina Mehra explains how the valuation of the stock market impacted by intrest rate, how the relationship between the two works and which companies get impacted.
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What are the factors that affect the pe ratio of a stock and why does it vary? Devina Mehra explains
What are the important factors that determines the PE ratio of a stock? Devina Mehra also explains why these factors vary within the same industry/sectors
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Why investing within your circle of competence can hurt your investment return, Devina Mehra explains.
In this video Devina Mehra expains that why investing only within your Circle of Competence can seriously harm your portfolio.
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Will the Russia-Ukraine conflict impact the indian & the international markets? by Devina mehra.
The above video is regarding Russia-Ukraine conflict impact on the Indian as well as on International Share Market. Devina Mehra explains the impact this situation in detail
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Equity can be a risky asset class even when you don't invest in the stock market. Here's how.
Equity is understood to be a risky asset class. The assumption is, that while on the average, over the long term, we make higher returns in the stock market, these returns come with higher volatility and risk.
A figure often tossed around is that in the Indian equity markets, you should expect a compounded annual return of 14%-15%. This number is derived from the actual annualised return of just over 15% that the BSE Sensex has given in the 40-p...
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What's the Risk of NOT being in the market? The answer will stun you.
“Most of the up days come in the middle of a crisis or after a crash. They are rarely part of a bull run and in India, the only time we have found them as being part of a bull run was in Harshad Mehta’s scam time which was a rigged market,” says Devina Mehra, Chairperson & MD, First Global.
It is getting bad. Will it get worse before it gets better?
Let me just step back a bit as we are right in the...
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Inflation & interest rates: Why they matter and where they are headed.
Another article about inflation? Reason to get a bit fed up (pun unintended)? Of course! But there's no getting away from it.
Inflation is currently the tail that's wagging the dog of the entire financial, and for that matter real, world. Inflation is driving policy, especially interest rate policy of central banks plus some fiscal policy (like the duty cuts on fuel in India).
After decades of being a tame, domesticated animal in the devel...
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How Rising Oil Prices Will Affect Investors Around the Globe.
The rising price of crude oil due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is burning a hole in our pockets. Everyone around the world is feeling the pinch.
Just as the global economy started registering signs of recovery from the negative effects of the pandemic, the war exacerbated the situation.
If anyone has been following the recent oil price news, it would appear to be all doom and gloom....
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RBI on way to catching up with reality, globally rate hikes will be an overhang on asset prices.
Moments after the Reserve Bank of India hiked the policy rate by 50 basis points, Devina Mehra, Chairperson, First Global, spoke exclusively to Moneycontrol on the impact of the hike and key risks to markets.
With this hike, has policy caught up with reality?
Of course, the RBI has been behind the curve on rate hikes. It took too long to react to inflation. Wholesale Inflation (WPI) was at a 30-year high for FY22. Many Eme...
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How does artificial intelligence and machine learning help navigate the volatility & Enhanced returns.
How do we achieve the state of steady returns with lesser volatility?
First Global’s Investment strategy is based on our unique, proprietary Human + Machine Model, as opposed to the traditional human only module of fund management of other fund houses.
In our fund management model, machine learning systems typically select between 80-100 stocks from an overall Universe of around 600 +700 stocks.
From this ...
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India to outperform, export-oriented themes to show earnings revival.
“I expect India to outperform the global markets this year, continuing its outperformance of last year - which itself came after a long bout of underperformance for nearly a decade,” says Devina Mehra, Chairperson & MD, First Global.
In an interview with ETMarkets, Mehra with over three decades of experience said: “One broad theme that may work this year is that of rupee dep...
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Why does a Hold rating exist in securities research and should it?
Why does the ‘hold’ rating exist in securities research?
Is it rational?
Think about it, if a security is not worth buying today, why is it worth holding?
The whole construct of having a “hold” rating is to hide from us the fact that we are being irrational by putting a covert premium on something precisely because we are already holding it.
This irrationality arises out of something called the Endowment...
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Where is the Value-addition in a business? The answer may surprise you.
"Business only has two basic functions, marketing, and innovation. Everything else is a cost", said Peter Drucker.
Many US corporations, in particular took this to heart or even to the extreme: own the brand and R&D. Outsource everything else.
Apple is a poster child for this approach but holds for several across many industries from garments to sneakers. Practically nothing of what Levis or Nike sell is made in the countries where the...
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Global inflation and the perils of making forecasts
While economists and analysts have been calling for peak inflation for almost a year now, prices have kept going up rapidly, thanks to China’s zero-COVID policy, the Russia-Ukraine war, and chronic underinvestment in fossil fuels, being combined with re-opening in most countries.
As the Dutch proverb goes, “It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future!” Economists’ forecasts of inflation over t...
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Will it hurt the economy if startups don't get funded?
Just when you got used to seeing the congratulatory/ self-congratulatory posts on India hitting the 100 Unicorns number, there has been one story after another on startups, or more accurately, privately held VC funded companies, failing to raise the next round of funding or valuations crashing 97%!
So, is the party over? For now, yes - as the easy money chasing dreams is not flowing quite so easily. The company 'may never be profitable' doesn't l...
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How clear is the crystal ball? And does anyone have one?
Everyone loves to asks the 'experts': What will the market do now? What will be the GDP for the year? What will the Fed (or RBI) rate be by end 2022?
There things which are inherently unknowable, like the market - after all who knew at the beginning of 2020 that hotel and airline revenues would go to zero for most of that year. The Russia-Ukarine conflict didn't even make to the list of the top 10 risks listed by The Economist in January 2022!
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The pain is not over but India may outperform this year too.
“Our slightly overweight basket continues to have IT services, though they have not done so well this year. Capital goods came out of the long funk; there has been textiles, telecom and oil and gas and a part of chemicals. So even within a theme, one has to drill down. Banks are never a safe sector,” says Devina Mehra, Chairperson & MD, First Global.
It is getting bad to hard and hard to w...
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Why does it look like a carnage in global markets when the S&P 500 is down only 17% from peak?
The major US index, the S&P 500, is down only about 16.8% from peak. Why then does it look that there has been a carnage in the US market? Why do all those who bought US or global funds/ ETFs and enthusiastically opened Robinhood trading accounts looking morose these days? Why does the pain look so much worse than what's captured in the headline index?
One, the average S&P stock is dow...
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When the RBI pulled an 'overnighter'.
I've been saying for the last couple of months that the RBI appeared to be the most sanguine central bank in the world - the only one I could think of which saw no problems either on growth or inflation.
This, inspite of the fact that the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was over 13% for the entire financial year FY21-22 - a 3 decade high. The last reading was 14% plus.
True, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remained at less than ha...
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You always knew it...or did you?
There are those who think that the Fed's 50 basis points (0.5 percent) hike was no big deal & was 'always on the cards' and we're glad it wasn't 75 bps or 1 percent point.
Worth reminding yourself that one, the last time a 50 bps hike happened was over 2 decades ago, in the year 2000.
Two, a series of 50 bps hikes would've been unthinkable a year, or even 6 months, ago.
This is your brain tricking you with the Classic Hindsight ...
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Defining Success: 10 Tips for Investors This Eid.
If you’re thinking about investing money this Eid, you might be overwhelmed by the current global geopolitical and economic uncertainties. However, wherever there is unpredictability, there is opportunity. Being smart and prudent would certainly help you become a successful investor. But, you might not know where to start. Therefore, the following is a roadmap towards effective portf...
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India will continue to outperform this year as it did in 2021.
“India will do a bit better than the other emerging markets and do a bit better than overall markets also - not just emerging. But again one has to be choosy here. That is the broad theme that I still have because there will be many sectors that would be hurting,” says Devina Mehra, Chairperson & MD, First Global.
Last couple of sessions it has become quite clear that a fatigue is setting in when it comes to the ...
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How high oil prices are the cause of Russia-Ukraine conflict, not the consequence.
A study of past conflicts suggests that high energy prices prompt military aggression from oil-exporting nations
Sure, we all know that oil and natural gas prices were impacted by the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent war, but what about the other way around?
Did high energy prices contribute to this conflict escalating into a full-fledged war? Is there at least a case to be made for this?
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The global growth can be a lot worse than the slashed World Bank estimates.
The World Bank has slashed its global GDP growth estimate for 2022 to 3.2% from 4.1% - nearly a full percent point drop. And this may not be the end of the bad news.
The 4.1% itself was supposed to be worrisome after 5.5% in '21.
In January the World Bank had said "At a time when governments in many developing economies lack the policy space to support activity if needed, new COVID-19 outbreaks, persistent supply-chain bottlenecks and infl...
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How Nations Fare as Inflation Rages Through The World.
After decades of being confined to history books at least for the Western world, inflation has been making a comeback for the last few quarters.
It started with the rally in commodities, especially oil and metals, post Covid in 2020 after a 10-15 year period when various commodity prices had remained largely subdued.
After some ups and downs in 2021, the prices started to accelerate around the beginning of the New Year. Added to this cycli...
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Do You Believe the Evidence of Your Eyes or the Dogma You Were Taught in School.
The answer may surprise you!
Neurologists learn in medical school that the brain can't change, isn't plastic, can't repair itself; MBAs learn that the global investment market is efficient.
No matter what data, experiments and research show, dogmas continue.
Thus, neuroscientists have proven over and over again how the brain adapts, heals - sometimes astonishingly fast (Read 'The Brain that Changes Itself' by Norman Doidge ...
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Where are the green pastures in the global equity markets and why it matters.
2022 has not been particularly great for equity portfolio management from the word go and most major markets have been in the red zone. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has only made it clearer that there are few places to hide in the current environment.
But a more careful look shows that there is a category of countries/markets that have actually done well in spite or sometimes because of the current turmoil.
A quick country ...
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Why the market messes up your brilliant strategy.
You traded so brilliantly last year & now the market has gone & messed it up.
Holds for most of us, isn't it?
Notice something about the statement?
We attribute successes to personal skills and failures to factors beyond our control: the classical definition of SelfAttribution bias.
Self-attribution means if I pick a stock that does well, it's because I'm a genius.
If it doesn't, then there's plenty of factors ...
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Could your parents have left you a better legacy?
We often get caught up in anecdotes of people who got rich because their parents or grandparents had bought shares of Hindustan Unilever, HDFC, etc, because that small investment has now grown into a nice little nest egg.
Then we start to regret the fact that our parents did not start investing in the stock market a few decades ago instead of sticking to FDs, as that would have provided us with retirement money.
In reality, it would have h...
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The one reason you can't get rid of illusions & biases even after you understand them.
Here's an optical illusion WITH an explanation of how it works. Yet even after reading and understanding the explanation, can you really 'unsee' it?
Optical illusions are a great example of 'Just because you understand it, doesn't mean you can get rid of it'...whatever type of bias, illusion or anomaly you're talking about.
Intellectually underst...
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Reversing Globalization will have Implications.
Economics 101 taught us the benefits of Free Trade, Theory of comparative advantage, how trade benefits both the exporter and the importer and so on.
Everyone bought into it for much of the last hundred years & the world has flattened over time with components for each manufactured product from Levi jeans to Apple phones to Tesla cars coming from virtually anywhere in the world. To give only one example 92% of the semiconductor manufacturing ...
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Beyond the headlines of the 25 bps fed funds hike, here’s what else has changed:
Beyond the headlines of the 25 bps fed funds hike, here’s what else has changed:
- Terminal rate forecast up i.e the rates are expected to end up even higher
- GDP estimates cut significantly for the current year
- Stagflation risks are on the Fed's radar with upside risk on inflation and downside risk on growth
- Our read was that price stability will retain primary importance for the Fed, and maintaining employment/growth i...
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Women, Now's the time to take charge of your finances and Investments!
Almost exactly a year ago friend of mine lost her husband and while helping her sort out things I realised she had absolutely no idea of the family's finances and investments, let alone the structure of her husband's business. This isn't an illiterate woman - she is well educated, a postgraduate in fact. This was the situation that brought home to me the absolute importance of being aware of and in charge of your own financial well-being. This is not so...
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Be picky about stocks and put risk control measures in place
“This is a pick-and-choose market. It is not a market where you can be gung ho and I do not think the mood is gung ho just now. In terms of what investors should do, my advice would be that if you are looking to invest in something, you can start investing in three or four monthly tranches,” says Devina Mehra, Chairperson & MD, First Global.
What is your strategy for this market? There is so much fear at the moment. One ca...
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West risks inflation with Russian sanctions, says Devina Mehra; Watch out for Rupee slump this year.
Sanctions on Russia could also sting US, but for now the geo-political impact on stock markets is not likely to be huge in the medium term. First Global’s Devina Mehra tells Moneycontrol, It is time to orient towards companies that can gain from a weakening Rupee.
First Global’s Devina Mehra believes the impact of ongoing geopolitical crisis on the Indian stock market will fizzle out over the next 3-6 months. In conversation ...
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Why investors should care about the current inflation numbers.
We all know that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo and reverse repo rate — which are at a record low level — unchanged at 4% and 3.35%, respectively, while forecasting inflation to subside to 4.2% by Q4 in 2022-23 from 5.6% currently.
This inflation rate being forecast is for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The inflation forecast came in below consensu...
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Budget to have short-term impact; risk is with Rupee.
“The risk in India is still a little limited compared to what it is in the richly valued technology companies globally,” says Devina Mehra, Chairperson, First Global
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Learnings from Top Portfolio Manager of India | 2021
2021 has been a great year for our PMS product - we had a return of 54% till date as against 29% for the NSE 500!
As of November end, on a relative basis, we are far ahead of all large or multicap PMS schemes. Even more important, these returns came with extremely low volatility such that on risk-adjusted measure (Returns/ Volatility or Gain to Pain ratio), we are at roughly double the rate of all others.
This performance comes out of not ...
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Investing and Beyond: Books that I loved reading the most in 2021.
The round-up of the best books, out of the roughly 40, I read in 2021.
This is one to bookmark and share. The list has mostly non-fiction work. In no particular order, here goes:
- 'A Man for All Markets' by Edward O. Thorp
This book is by an amazing mind that cracked the code for many things, from stocks & derivatives to blackjack & roulette, with some physical sciences too. It is deli...
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2022 likely to be a decent year; trendline doesn’t point to big correction
“One has to look at export or import substitution sectors, particularly in line with the PLI scheme. There will be some pockets in chemicals, capital goods, auto and auto components. We do not like the two-wheelers for instance but there will be some pockets in the auto sector and one has to be choosy now," says Devina Mehra, Chairperson & MD, First Global.
It has bee...
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Does a cold winter await the Indian rupee?
The Indian rupee (INR) has been range-bound for a few years now. After all, it crossed 73 rupees to a dollar almost three years ago and has been oscillating between that and 75.5 for the most part of this time.
Historically, the rupee has either drifted down every year against the dollar (USD) or when it remains range-bound for a few years, the move can be very quick an...
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Why Should Big Investors Have All The Fun?
First Global has been catering to big investors across the globe for more than 30 years now! We started with the very largest institutions in the world and then moved to include large family offices and high net worth individuals.
Over the years, we have moved from human intelligence, including a very refined level of fundamental analysis and data science, to exploring artificial intelligence in investing for ma...
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When the unexpected happens: Policy and market implications of the reappearance of inflation.
Over the last few months, something has fundamentally changed in macroanalysis around the world. After lurking on the sidelines for years, without too much of policy implications, inflation is now beginning to inch towards the center stage.
With commodities’ price rise, supply bottlenecks and more, inflation finally is becoming a variable to reckon with. It is of even mo...
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What are the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies?
Cryptocurrencies have taken the world of investing by storm.
People from all walks of life — from college students to superannuated people — are dabbling in crypto trading.
Interestingly, some people, who have never even invested in stocks, have ta...
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Smart investing strategies and three investing mistakes to steer clear of
When starting out on, or even some way into, your investment journey, the information and advice about investing can be bewildering and confusing. Here are a few pointers on how to structure your thinking and, in particular, what to avoid doing.
One, portfolio management is very crucial: always have a clear view of what y...
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My advice to retail investors is not to think of new IPOs as buying a lottery ticket.
The frenzy in a particular IPO or even just after that IPO listing, is not often a very good indication of the long term prospects of the company, says Devina Mehra, Chairperson & MD, First Global.
You have seen many cycles; the boom and the bust of TMT, the rise and the fall of infra and now startups which have become the new tech companies. What is your understanding of ...
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The Future of Investment Management.
All of us have heard the term 'changing the playing field' and while this is normally used as a metaphor it actually refers to something that we can see in the real world - at times literally.
For example, in hockey the playing field changed from grass to astroturf and suddenly a whole different set of skills became important - from skilful dribbling and stickwork of the Major Dhyanchand era, the need of the hour was to be fast and fit. ...
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Pledge to really respect Lakshmi...not just worship her.
On Diwali, all of us worship the goddess Lakshmi but do we really show her the respect that is due to her?
If you look at the way you manage your own money or investments, you may find that this is often not the case.
Don't you spend more time and effort researching a 5000 or 10,000 Rupees purchase than you do a 50,000 or maybe, Rs...
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लक्ष्मी का वास्तव में सम्मान करने की प्रतिज्ञा लीजिए..न केवल उनकी पूजा करें
दिवाली पर हम सभी देवी लक्ष्मी की पूजा करते हैं लेकिन क्या हम वास्तव में उन्हें वह सम्मान देते हैं जो उनके कारण है?
यदि आप अपने स्वयं के धन या निवेश को प्रबंधित करने के तरीके क...
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Does the turmoil in China have implications for India?
Over the last few days, there have been a number of news stories on the Evergrande issue in China. Evergrande is a large property developer in China which has been facing financial difficulties with the possibility of default on its debt.
There have been questions like whether it is China's 'Lehman moment' meaning just as the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the Gre...
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The 100th Monkey is Being Found Faster.
Are You Ready to Be the 100th Monkey?
A few days back, I got a call from a cousin, who happens to be in his mid-30s and recently became a first time father.
He wanted to start a systematic investment plan (SIP) on an equity mutual fund and wanted to know what I thought about it. (He obviously had no idea that last 10 years; I'd worked on a troll farm, where the term SIP stood for Systematic Intimidation Plan).
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Evergrande is part of a deliberate move by China: Devina Mehra of First Global
“The Chinese government wants to let a few businesses fail to rein in a bigger problem ... The situation is similar to a controlled detonation. For all practical purposes, a default of Evergrande has already been priced in,” says the Founder of the asset management firm, First Global.
Devina Mehra is one of the sharpest minds in the Indian stock markets. An IIM-A gold medallist and Founder of securities and asset management firm Firs...
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Gain To Pain Ratio: The Simplest Way To Analyze The Quality Of PMS Returns.
Every single PMS or Mutual Fund manager keeps talking about how great their PMS investment returns are. That is great for them because that is their business. But how do you as an investor understand whether their returns are good?
Look at this example from cricket:
In 5 innings:
Batsman A: has scores of 50, 50, 50, 50, 50
Total: 250 runs
Average: 50
Batsman B: Scores of 0, 0, 0, 0...
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Le Grand Fromage: India's GDP Nos, About the Body Mass Index, Champagne & Jalzeera.
GDP is a tad like the Body Mass Index…
What it reveals is arousing, but what it conceals is dampening
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the period April to June this year came in at a record breaking 20.1%, the highest since 1996, when the country first started publishing quarterly GDP growth data. GDP is a measure of the economic size of a country. When calculated right, that is.
This one figure was e...
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Can a smart Portfolio Manager create a Permanent Bull Market for your Wealth.
As an investment professional, the question I face the most is some version of this: "What do you think of the market?" "Where do you think the market is headed?", "Will the market go up or down?"
And really the only answer to this is: "Which market are you talking about?" Because my reply depends on this.
Otherwise asking whether the market is going up or down is like asking whether a Giant Ferris Wheel...
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Heads I was Right, Tails The World was Wrong.
Last week, I was watching Rajiv Bajaj's interview where he mentions going to the village where his grandfather, Jamnalal Bajaj, was born. The latter was born in a poor family and once while playing outside was seen by a wealthy Sethji and adopted (for details of how that happened, you've see the interview). On that trip, he also met an employee - a security guard at Bajaj Auto - whose home was also in the same ...
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Correction? Yes. Bear Market? No!
Most people approach the markets expecting a reasonable amount of certainty, but the reality is that on a probabilistic basis, at any point in time, you can have a massive upswing, a massive downswing, or a flat market!
What are the probabilities one should attach to the event of a major crash or a bear market happening, now? In my opinion, one can have a correction, but the chances of a prolonged bear market are...
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It's Pouring Returns. What does our "Lake of Returns Theory" say now?
We were recently dwelling on this very interesting dichotomy that we have witnessed in the Indian stock market in the last 15 months or so.
The conventional wisdom prevailing last year, in the first quarter, was that the GST was going to drive out the unorganized sectors and all the business would flow into the arms of the organized sectors. And then the pandemic came. And this oversimplified opinion, turn into a snowball, with e...
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Why following successful investors sets you up for failure, Devina Mehra of First Global explains.
Suppose you want to know how to become rich or how to become a good investor or to run a successful company. How would you go about it?
A logical way to do it appears to be to look at the richest people in the world or the most successful investors/companies, study the techniques that they have employed, and use them in your own life.
The Huge Logical Fallacy
This strategy, in fact, is not logical at all! It has an inherent and ma...
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Can cryptocurrencies be included in a sensible investor's portfolio?
“Should I buy Bitcoin?”
What do you think of cryptocurrencies?”
These are now popular questions on the party circuit, even if the party is only a virtual one on Zoom.
The question is: should cryptocurrencies be included in a sensible investor’s portfolio? And here’s an attempt to answer it in a structured manner.
But before addressing this que...
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Why stocks that you hold look so much better than all else, Devina Mehra explains.
An American university did an experiment where it gave a set of students a coffee mug. A few days later, the same coffee mug was offered for purchase to other students. The ones who had to buy it, valued it at around $3 on the average but the students who had the mug were not willing to sell it for less than $6-7. This is a classic example of the Endowment Effect or the Endowment Bias.
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The doodh ka doodh, paani ka paani analysis of PMS MF Returns - the 2 minute difference between Luck and Skill.
Without getting into a long preamble, we invite you to take a look at the data below, which clearly shows you the returns of the various Mutual Funds and PMS Providers, but most importantly they show you where the return...
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The Mystery behind Bitcoin's Founder.
Bitcoin has undoubtedly laid the foundation for the rapid development of Blockchain technology as we know it today.
It all started soon after the financial crisis of 2008 when on October 31, the now-famous whitepaper “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” was shared on a cryptography forum by Satoshi Nakamoto, as an answer to the shortcomin...
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Judging Value, through another lens.
The style of investing that has attracted maximum derision in the last decade, it is value investing.
The aftermath of the 2008 crisis in which Central Banks flooded economies and markets with liquidity, effectively crushed the risk-free rate down to levels unseen before.
The effect it had on growth equities ...
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Bitcoin: The History and the Future.
The History of Bitcoin
On January 12, 2009, the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto made the first-ever Bitcoin (BTC) transaction, sending 10 BTC to developer Hal Finney and just like that a new asset, or rather a new asset class was born!
Never mind that the 'value' of the asset was still ...
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Is Investing a Game of Luck or Skill?
Over a period of time, a certain School of Investing has dominated all investment thought.
And that is the Warren Buffett School of Investing.
What exactly is that school of investing about?
That school of investing in essence comes down to this:
Buy a small group of high quality branded consumer companies which have supposed pricing power (the ability to raise prices with...
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What does Field Hockey teach us about Investing.
Ever heard of Dhyan Chand?
For the sake of our millennial readers, let’s do a quick bio of Dhyan Chand - the hockey equivalent of cricketing legend Sir Donald Bradman:
Dhyan Chand scored 14 goals at the 1928 Amsterdam Olympics. He was hailed as a ‘magician of hockey’ by newspapers. So ...
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Why Human Beings are hardwired to make the wrong investment decisions
When you switch on your laptop or mobile, at times a disconcerting ad pops up, talking about a young girl with three siblings who cannot afford food or school fees, or maybe, a parent asking for money for a life-saving surgery for their child.
An ad like that usually makes you a bit uncomfortable or guilty, if you do not respond to it.
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Know why most Human Fund Managers underperform Markets?
We had a very interesting conversation with a very accomplished industrialist. He is an existing investor into our Global funds and India PMS, and therefore very familiar with our approach to investing.
At the end of half an hour, spent discussing the entire Investment landscape, he said: "It's clear that you own some remarkable companies in your Funds,...
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The 6 Financial Precautions which most Investors don't take. And that you should.
One of the commonest questions I get asked by hundreds of investors from across the world is: "How are we to make sense of Equity Investing? We get so much conflicting advice. Can Investing be simplified so that even lay Investors can do a decent job on their own?"
Let us admit and accept this much. Last 12 months have been bizarre! Major world indices have scaled highs, seemingly unmindful of "...
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Women, take charge of your finances now: Here’s how!
If there is one gift you should give yourself on this Women’s Day, it is to take charge of your finances and investments.
This is true Self-care!
Too many women remain ambivalent about handling this and leave it to the male members of their household, but it is extremely key to your wel...
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Global Investing? NASDAQ is not even 10 Percent of the game.
One of the key metrics we, at First Global, look for, when building our Portfolios, is: how correlated are our Positions. Meaning: do we have many stocks in the overall same category, eg, US NASDAQ, which then means that even if we have 25 such stocks, in effect, because of the very high correlation between them (95-99%), we actually own just one stock! And that's hugely risky, even though on paper, we own a diversified basket of 25 stocks...
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Can a smart Portfolio Manager create a Permanent Bull Market for your wealth?
Can smart Fund Managers create a permanent bull market in your portfolio?
We absolutely believe they can!
But first: Why is this question at all relevant?
Well, it is very logical for you to think that markets have gone up a lot and therefore, should you be investing right now or not?
Many big and small investors have thought exactly like this in the past...
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Our "Death by Dollar Debasement" Trade continues to work well!
Something interesting we thought we would draw your attention to:
Our Human + Machine caught the Dollar Debasement Trade from mid-2020, and that is paying off big!
Our Machine caught an incipient US Dollar weakening right in the middle of the year: in hindsight, it seems pretty obvious, but six months back, we had people laughing at...
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The Best Books I Read in 2020... and not all relate to Investing!
'These are not necessarily books on investing or stock market or even finance. But they will sure help refine your thinking edge or tell you something new.'
By Devina Mehra
Calendar 2020 is over, and what a year it has been! One of the few pleasures that wasn't hit by this year's turmoil was reading.
Recently, someone asked me on Twitter ab...
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The beaten down rally in world stock markets shows how interconnected the world is?
November 9th is a day Investors won't forget in a hurry. Especially the successful ones this year. Because that's the day everything changed.
What worked beautifully in Investment Portfolios - basically growth investing - through the year 2020, suddenly stopped working.
What were disasters (investment-wise) through the year, suddenly became stars.
What was positive news for the real...
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Do these factors explain the Indian Banking Rally? A banking veteran explains
India, from the end of September, and more notably, from the 1st of October, has been a one horse race: banking stocks.
Every "performing" sector which has driven the entire rally from April,has actually been in the negative in this very period! See the list: Pharma, IT, Chemicals!
Let us try to understand whether this banking rally is logical or something else.
(This is wri...
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Narrowing markets can be like narrowing arteries.
The Indian stock market has been on an absolute roll over the past 30-40 days.
It is as if all the markets have gotten over the virus concern completely.
It may well be so but as long time students of the market, we must always dig deeper, because ultimately that is what people look to us, old folks, for: Experience coupled with level-headed Analysis.
Good news: In the one-month period endi...
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Books that will make you Rich.
The Outstanding books Devina Mehra recommend for old investors and new
First Global started with Rs. 10,000 some 30 years ago.
Devina Mehra, with no family wealth, made this tiny capital into l...
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I handed over my cheque in March, but they never invested for 3-4 weeks
"I handed over my cheque in March, but they never invested for 3-4 weeks.”
The Investing Journey of a Senior Fortune 500 Executive: A Fascinating Read
We got this recently from a client of ours, who is a senior executive in a Fortune 500 company and is based in Stuttgart, Germany.
His investment journey may appear familiar to you.
(Do read till the end, because something is interesting there!)&nb...
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Why all High Yield Bond categories are not created equal (Part 1)
Bond investment decisions are supposed to be made on a Investment-grade versus Non-investment/ High yield bond binary. Right?
Not quite!
We explain why.
As we delved deeper into this and did more granular analysis, we discovered that all rating categories within High Yield bonds are not created equal.
This is what we found: Higher-quality high-yield bonds are likely better bets for long-term investors than those t...
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Why Human Fund managers "Storify" their Investments and Why it is Risky
We were having a chat with a Family Office Head the other day, who has large sums invested with us, in India and across the world.
At the end of half an hour, spent discussing the entire Investment landscape, he said: "It's clear that you own some amazing companies in your portfolios: Alkyl Amines, Navin Fluorine, Reliance, Muthoot, Thermo Fisher, Shopify, Logitech, LSE, JD, etcetera. How come I have not heard you sp...
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Why the Traditional "Human- Only" Model of Investing is obsolete. And fit only for museums.
What you hear most often, from Fund Managers, is: "We look for great companies that deliver multi-bagger returns".
Sounds Very glam.
But just a slight problem: It is not borne out by data. Most fund managers are lucky even to perform as well as the market - let alone better.
So why has the "Human only" Investing Model stopped working?
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The 4 Major Risks you avoid, when You invest with First Global.
Investing at its heart and soul is avoidance of the big loss.
We, at First Global, look at risk management as a central tenet of our investing process.
While there are quantitative ways to manage risk, this blog post, we want to talk about how to qualitatively manage risk in your portfolio.
Therefore, qualitatively speaking, these are the major risks that you should avoid in your investing journey.
"Storification" risk: w...
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How not to do international investment diversification.
I made a presentation at the Morningstar conference in 2019 which created quite a ripple amongst investors.
The theme of my presentation was that Indian equities had been an extremely disappointing asset class over the last 10 5, 3 and 1 year time frames.
Starting from 2010, the Dollar index (Dollex) has given negative Returns 6% till date.
And the data for 2019 has been eye-popping. <...
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4 thumb rules from Devina Mehra to avoid Financial ICU.
Calendar 2020 has, so far, made almost all Indian investors, big or small, look like really sick patients. Nearly all strategies have been decimated in a market that resembled a ferocious killer dog let loose on a flock of chickens.
So what are the learnings that you should take away from this bear market?
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खास आपके लिए चार मंत्र जो आपको फाइनेंसियल आईसीयू में जाने से बचाएंगे
2020 लगभग सभी भारतीय निवेशकों के लिए बहुत ही कष्टकारी रहा।
निवेश की लगभग सभी रणनीतियाँ विफल हुई और अधिकतर निवेशकों को भारी नुकसान ...
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Want to know why PMS Industry Returns are disgraceful.
There is no easy way to say this.
The Portfolio Management Services Industry is in a shambles.
No. It's broken.
It's a tale of "naam badey, aur darshan chhotey".
The Industry was born on the promise of superior performance. Superior to Mutual Funds, that is.
But what does the data say?
The industry per...
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विदेशी शेयर बाजार से प्रॉफिट कमाना चाहते हैं तो निवेश की इन गलतियों से बचें
घरेलू बाजार के खराब रिटर्न के बाद आप अंतरराष्ट्रीय मार्केट में निवेश कर सकते हैं लेकिन इसका सही तरीका क्या है?
हमने 2019 में&nb...
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9 Things We Did To Navigate Tricky Markets...And The 6th Is A Sixer.
We at the First Global, just thought we would share our strategy for the past 30 days or so - a period of unprecedented turmoil & high volatility in the markets.
Go through the nine things we did to navigate the Market.
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We avoided most of the downfall in markets in the month of February and March, in India and Globally,...
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Investing with ambiguity.
Living with ambiguity is the first lesson we teach our Analysts at #FirstGlobal. A lesson that is particularly hard for the engineers to grasp 😊
The Difference between education & real life is this:
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In Maths and Science, the problems have a known set of variables with definite values (speed, direction etc)
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Whereas decisions in r...
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Am I a Bull? Am I Bear? No. I am a Hare.
Over the past several years, I have heard the usual tag attached to me: "The Big Bear".
Of course, like in most things in this world, this monicker is neither accurate nor particularly sensible.
It represents an under-analysed and oversimplified perspective, based largely on two seminal events of the past 20 years.
First: The massive meltdown in Year 2000, of tech stoc...
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Whats love gotta do with investing.
Valentine's Week is over but let us still give you some love advice for free.
It is great to love a guy, gal, your family, dog, cat, country etc.
But you must NEVER EVER fall in love any stock or investment.
An investment has one purpose and one purpose only: to multiply your wealth.
Look elsewhere for your emotional satisfaction & you will end up wealt...
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Traders, You must be Aware of These Mind Flaws.
Trading is like an MMA fight. A constant battle with your emotions.
Many traders, even experienced ones, often exit their trades before the optimum time. And then there is nothing but regret!
Always understand that most things happen in the subconscious mind. And, our actions are an outcome of the same emotional fight.
But don’t get upset if you have just realized the psychological biases that humans posses...
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Did you Know these Trading Strategies with Ichimoku Clouds?
Did you Know these Trading Strategies with Ichimoku Clouds?
Technical indicators are excellent price action indicators.
In the 1960s, a Japanese journalist named “Ichimoku Sanjin” brought a special technical analysis tool to this trading world.
It is termed as “Ichimoku Clouds”, meaning “One look, glance” in Japanese.
You just have to peek our the indicator once. You will get to know ab...
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What Asset Allocation is not
The word Asset Allocation is bandied around rather casually these days. Hence it is important to understand what Asset Allocation is not.
We see the word asset allocation used quite widely and we should say, somewhat lightly these days with many financial advisors and fund managers claiming to do asset allocation strategies.
Only when one goes somewhat deeper into this one realises that the Asset Alloc...
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Why and how we tweaked our Winning India Portfolio Management model in 2020?
We did quite ok in January, 2020.
India Investment Products
The India Super 50 (IS50) did +8.9% in the month of January, '20 with a Sharpe Ratio of 2.8.
The India Multi Asset Allocation Portfolio (IMAAP), delivered +4.75% in January,'20 with a Sharpe of 3.7.
The NIFTY was down 1.7% and the NSE 500 was down 0.1% in January '20.
So, pretty good.
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What Asset Allocation is?
“Remember XYZ stock I told you about 3 months ago? It is up 80% since then”, “ABC ekdum solid hai. Just jump in”, “PQR kya lagta hai?” Sounds like familiar party conversation…or something that you watch financial channels for?
If your end game is to have fun discussions at parties, this is fine. But if your purpose is to protect and multiply your wealth, or to optimise your portfolio, you are f...
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The Top 3 Trading Lessons from 2019.
Ok folks, thankfully 2019 is over!
Or, maybe not "thankfully"; the risks that existed in 2019 continued its existence in 2020, and given that parts of the world are about one bomb away from annihilation, there is little room for escape.
So, did we learn anything from our trading results in 2019?
Well, yes. Buy low-sell high.
Just kidding 😁.
But seriously, it is interesting to see tha...
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Crude Price Optimism in January 2020.
This crude price chart shows clear signs of optimism in the near term. Look at the recent breakout from a stubborn resistance mark. It seems the bulls have enough strength to display more upward moves in the coming days.
So, let’s jump to the point and try to find out what’s driving the crude bulls right now, one by one.
Let’s get started:
The US-Iran Conflicts
Escalating tensions in the...
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The most Important Element in your Investment Strategy | When to sell? By Devina Mehra.
Moments after the Reserve Bank of India hiked the policy rate by 50 basis points, Devina Mehra, Chairperson, First Global, spoke exclusively to Moneycontrol on the impact of the hike and key risks to markets.
With this hike, has policy caught up with reality?
Of course, the RBI has been behind the curve on rate hikes. It took too long to react to inflation. Wholesale Inflation (WPI) was at a 30-year high for FY22. Many Eme...
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Accolades & Happiness Under Management
First Global has been widely commended by Global Media. And by thousands of big & small investors worldwide
Economists Think Dollar's Fall May Explain the Recent ‘Rally’ by Steve Liesman
Einstein taught us about relativity in nature. Now come Devina Mehra and Shankar Sharma of First Global to teach us about relativity in financial markets -- and raise some serious questions about just what is driving stock prices.
First Global reports are quite credible and, on occasion, more than that.
What prompts this mention is Intel's earnings report and the fact that First Global has had a pretty good bead on the company and its stock.
AMD up again following First Global upgrade to ‘buy’ (AMD) By Tomi Kilgore
Analyst Kuldeep Koul at First Global upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to "buy" from "outperform," given the "exceptional traction" that the chipmaker's Opteron line of processors has been able to get.
Baidu Climbs on First Global’s ‘Outperform’ Outlook
Baidu Inc., the operator of China’s most-used Internet search engine, rose to the highest price in two weeks after First Global rated the shares “outperform? in new coverage.
Personality counts: Walmart's frugal, but Target charms
"It's better to take a slight hit on [profit] margins and keep on moving and inventing," says First Global Securities. And at least for now, Target is inventing in a way that appeals to consumers with money to spend.
Dead Batteries
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
Bipinchandra Dugam @bipinchandra90
@devinamehra @firtglobalsec
invested in both GFF-GTS and Super I50. Thank you very much for such wonderful investing experience with completely new approach. In my 15years of investing first product I felt which close to what customer want.
Shishir Kapadia @shishirkapadia1
@firstglobalsec @devinamehra
by far you are the best, I have not come across transparency, acumen, global expertise, exposure, protection of capital, delivering return from any fund/ fund managers. Invested very small size in 3 products will keep on increasing it over the period
Sumeet Goel @GoelSumeet
Very happy & relaxed to be invested with first global pms
Shishir Kapadia@shishirkapadia1
Congratulations on super performance, above all transparency and systematic process are unmatchable.
One must opt this, if person consider him/her self as an investor. Very happy to be part of this since invested. FG has managed worst year (ie 2022) so efficiently and skillfully.
SY @SachinY95185924
With so much of volatility in the market, risk management is very important part & considering that FG is doing awesome work!!! Kudos to you Chief
Amit Shukla @amitTalksHere
Truly outstanding. As a retail subscriber to #fghum #smallcase, I can vouch for the Nifty beating returns (8% vs 3%) in last 1 year. Keep up the awesome work @firstglobalsec
We can load above testimonials on site as a scroller, and just below that we can add a section for compliments . Below tweets are comments and praises are related to our content, performance and some our direct compliments to you.
ADIT PATEL @ADITPAT11226924
Good team...
Special mention @KarmathNaveen .. he is soo helpful anytime of the day or night..
Hindustani @highmettle
Bought Peace with FG-Hum.Moving all funds from DIY investing to well managed and diversified PF at low cost.
It has doubled almost, excellent pick.Every small investor must invest in her FG-HUM Smallcase.
Suresh Nair @Suresh_Nair_23
I have 8 small cases and your has been the most rewarding ones .. thank you Devina.
Sayed Masood @SayedM375
There is absolutely no doubt that she is one of the best investors of India in modern times but more importantly, she shares the most sincere and sane advice with retail investors.
SY @SachinY95185924
Wow Superb Returns🔥 Congratulations Chief for being Number 1 among all PMS!!!
You are one of the sharpest mind in Global Stock Market
AnupamM @moitraanupam
Congratulations Devina, results talk in itself!
Abhishek @simplyabhi21
Congratulations ma’am @devinamehra ! The consistency you have in maintaining the top rank position is outstanding! 👏
Mihir Shah @Mihir41Shah
We are learning More about markets (& Life ) thanks to U than we learnt in our Professional courses.A BIg Thank You, Wish all get Teachers Like You!!
Sumit Sharma @MediaSumit
"The ability to be comfortable with being outside consensus is a superpower in investing...and in life." Devina ji hits the nail on its head!
Majid Ahamed @MajidAhamed1
Congratulations @devinamehra mam! All the best for long term returns as well.
Vinay Kumar @VinayKu05949123
This is the wonderful session I have ever attended till date. One of the most fruitful hour of my life. Devina madam, ur clarity on financial mkts is simply superb.The way u portray the facts supported by "data" about stock mkts is really astonishing.I will listen again.Thanks.
VIJAY @drippingashes
I loved to read your journey, insight and philosophy. It's a pleasure to read and know of your takes on market and life.
MNC🏹 @Focus_SME
Check & follow @devinamehra's timeline for lots of post debunking such rosy stories. Also, she gives amazing 🤩 sector directions/hints.
KLN Murthy @KLNMurthy2016
Good actionable insights, great article!
Suresh Nair @gkumarsuresh
Devina Madam is simply terrific... good knowledge, straight and simple thinking.
Very difficult to emulate such traits. I listen her past interviews from youtube.
Respect...!!!!
DD @AliensDelight
One of the brightest minds in the world of finance :)
Radhakrishnan Chonat @RCxNair
📣 Calling all investors! Just had an incredible interview with @devinamehra, Chairperson and MD of First Global. We discussed the importance of global diversification, effective asset allocation, and the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Trust me, you don't want to miss this!
siddarthmohta @siddarthmohta
Excellent performance. Flexibility is the key as you have mentioned it earlier also. Cannot have finite rules for infinite mkt opportunities.
Boom (বুম)@Booombaastic
To be honest, the insights which Devina madam brings in is very enriching..have learnt a lot from them...
Himanssh Kukreja @Himansh02428907
One of the most accurate analysts :)
I always look forward to you interviews mam
Abhijeet Deshpande @AbhijeetD2018
Madam, It is always a treat to read your insight, not only on business but on other topics also!!
Dada.AI @dada_on_twit
Thanks for this wisdom ma'am. Always love hearing your thoughts on everything equity. :-)
adil @zinndadil
Excellent points!
Can clearly feel this thread is a product of marination of many books and years of experience. 👍
Kamal thakur @Kamalgt10
Superb !!
Your knowledge, analysis & articulation is simply great 👍
Tanay @Tanay36232730
Follower on Twitter and Subsciber on YouTube of First Global, really helping me in my investment desicion. Thanks
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