How to use the 2023 Nifty forecasts

Now we have all the Nifty (or for that matter S&P 500) forecasts for end 2023, from every stock market expert and securities house.

Hope you are keeping them safe to check in December.

As an aside, you will have to admit that none of the estimates talk about what that expert had predicted last year and how it turned out.

The truth? It's in a category called 'Objective Ignorance' by Daniel Kahneman - something that CANNOT be known.

Yet, 'Experts' don't even talk probabilities, they give a single number - usually with remarkable confidence.

Treat this forecast game as entertainment only!

Nifty predictions are only one example of humans forecasting things which can't be known. And having a great deal of conviction and confidence in the forecast.

As Daniel Kahneman writes along with co-authors in Noise, "We maintain unchastened willingness to make bold predictions about the future from little useful information."

Once again time for my favourite aphorism, "Confidence does not equal Competence."

And this is not even really about competence, because this is a number that is inherently unknowable.

Even without the benefit of having read Daniel Kahneman, I have refused to give a Sensex or Nifty projection on Diwali or Newyear, for the last 30 years 😊

From the desk of 

Devina Mehra

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