Now we have all the Nifty (or for that matter S&P 500) forecasts for end 2023, from every stock market expert and securities house.
Hope you are keeping them safe to check in December.
As an aside, you will have to admit that none of the estimates talk about what that expert had predicted last year and how it turned out.
The truth? It's in a category called 'Objective Ignorance' by Daniel Kahneman - something that CANNOT be known.
Yet, 'Experts' don't even talk probabilities, they give a single number - usually with remarkable confidence.
Treat this forecast game as entertainment only!
Nifty predictions are only one example of humans forecasting things which can't be known. And having a great deal of conviction and confidence in the forecast.
As Daniel Kahneman writes along with co-authors in Noise, "We maintain unchastened willingness to make bold predictions about the future from little useful information."
Once again time for my favourite aphorism, "Confidence does not equal Competence."
And this is not even really about competence, because this is a number that is inherently unknowable.
Even without the benefit of having read Daniel Kahneman, I have refused to give a Sensex or Nifty projection on Diwali or Newyear, for the last 30 years ðŸ˜Š
From the desk of
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Economists Think Dollar's Fall May Explain the Recent â€˜Rallyâ€™ by Steve Liesman
Einstein taught us about relativity in nature. Now come Devina Mehra and Shankar Sharma of First Global to teach us about relativity in financial markets -- and raise some serious questions about just what is driving stock prices.
First Global reports are quite credible and, on occasion, more than that.
What prompts this mention is Intel's earnings report and the fact that First Global has had a pretty good bead on the company and its stock.
AMD up again following First Global upgrade to â€˜buyâ€™ (AMD) By Tomi Kilgore
Analyst Kuldeep Koul at First Global upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to "buy" from "outperform," given the "exceptional traction" that the chipmaker's Opteron line of processors has been able to get.
Baidu Climbs on First Globalâ€™s â€˜Outperformâ€™ Outlook
Baidu Inc., the operator of Chinaâ€™s most-used Internet search engine, rose to the highest price in two weeks after First Global rated the shares â€œoutperform? in new coverage.
Personality counts: Walmart's frugal, but Target charms
"It's better to take a slight hit on [profit] margins and keep on moving and inventing," says First Global Securities. And at least for now, Target is inventing in a way that appeals to consumers with money to spend.
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
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