Over the past several years, I have heard the usual tag attached to me: "The Big Bear".
Of course, like in most things in this world, this monicker is neither accurate nor particularly sensible.
It represents an under-analysed and oversimplified perspective, based largely on two seminal events of the past 20 years.
First: The massive meltdown in Year 2000, of tech stocks in India and worldwide.
Second: The sub-prime precipitated global bear market of 2008.
In both cases, I was probably the only one in India, to get the two bear markets right.
And thus, the term "Great Bear" was born.
But let's analyse this a bit.
What's a bull?
Somebody who is an eternal optimist, and believes all market dislocations are temporary, and will correct themselves. This may appear to be a sensible perspective too, if one goes by what's generally accepted. Warren Buffet can qualify as that.
But remember, if you were a Japanese investor in 1989, believing in this theory, where would you have been 30 years on.
Or, of course, a tech investor in 2000.
What's a bear?
This is tricky. Usually a bear, in a developed market sense, is a person who analyses company financials with the aim to uncover fraud. Jim Chanos, David Einhorn, Muddy Waters come to mind.
Or a Macro trader like John Paulson who have bet on something falling (eg, sub-prime assets).
Now, here's the thing.
When I analyse my 30 years of investing, trading, analysing career, I find I have been bullish and bearish both.
Here is a quick list of the major ones:
So what does the above look like?
You guessed it!
It looks like a Hare.
It has both entry trades. And exit trades.
Often in the same asset class!
A hare is a quick animal.
It can run fast in a direction.
And then, it can stop and go right back in the opposite direction.
It is flexible.
It doesn't indulge in unnecessary, mindless activity (many bulls do that!). But when it does, it's lightning quick and thoroughly decisive.
It has no fixed pattern to its movement. Unlike bears and bulls, who can become very predictable.
A hare is nimble.
In fact, a hare has very, very low fat. Under 10%. A hare is all muscle and sinew.
Unlike bulls and bears, both of which are lumbering, clumsy animals, incapable of great dexterity. Their body fat % generally lies between 25-40%!
A Hare has something called "panoramic vision", allowing it to see in all directions - an amazing near 360° vision.
That means, unlike humans, it can see on the sides, even what's behind it.
So opportunities and dangers both become very quickly apparent.
On the other hand, a bull is generally color blind. And a bear has quite poor vision.
The animal that I relate to most, in life and in investing, is therefore, a Hare.
This permeates our entire approach to Investing, at First Global.
We are always alert. Always scanning.
Always in a state of relaxed alertness. Think Bruce Lee: A Perfect Hare, no?
To be able grab an opportunity or run away from danger.
We have no fixed directional biases. Just like a Hare.
We can play an aggressive game when the situation warrants.
We can drop anchor and play defense in troublesome situations.
We don't get over-committed to any shot or strategy.
We will pivot.
Which is why we exited our most profitable investments of 2019 (Tech, Russia, Brazil) in a day, in early February, 2020.
Before the meltdown.
We had no emotions invested in these trades.
The whole objective in investing is to Be One Step Ahead.
That's our philosophy at First Global.
And that's also the philosophy of the Hare.
So don't be Bullish.
Don't be Bearish.
Want to open your trading account? Email us on firstname.lastname@example.org and we will get you started super fast!!
Economists Think Dollar's Fall May Explain the Recent ‘Rally’ by Steve Liesman
Einstein taught us about relativity in nature. Now come Devina Mehra and Shankar Sharma of First Global to teach us about relativity in financial markets -- and raise some serious questions about just what is driving stock prices.
First Global reports are quite credible and, on occasion, more than that.
What prompts this mention is Intel's earnings report and the fact that First Global has had a pretty good bead on the company and its stock.
AMD up again following First Global upgrade to ‘buy’ (AMD) By Tomi Kilgore
Analyst Kuldeep Koul at First Global upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to "buy" from "outperform," given the "exceptional traction" that the chipmaker's Opteron line of processors has been able to get.
Baidu Climbs on First Global’s ‘Outperform’ Outlook
Baidu Inc., the operator of China’s most-used Internet search engine, rose to the highest price in two weeks after First Global rated the shares “outperform? in new coverage.
Personality counts: Walmart's frugal, but Target charms
"It's better to take a slight hit on [profit] margins and keep on moving and inventing," says First Global Securities. And at least for now, Target is inventing in a way that appeals to consumers with money to spend.
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
Bipinchandra Dugam @bipinchandra90
invested in both GFF-GTS and Super I50. Thank you very much for such wonderful investing experience with completely new approach. In my 15years of investing first product I felt which close to what customer want.
Shishir Kapadia @shishirkapadia1
by far you are the best, I have not come across transparency, acumen, global expertise, exposure, protection of capital, delivering return from any fund/ fund managers. Invested very small size in 3 products will keep on increasing it over the period
Piyush Bhargava @PiyushB88762654
Thanks you team FG specially Devina, my investment doubled in less than 3 years in SDPB As a investors & PMS distributor of your product looking to have a long-term relationship with the company. @KarmathNaveen the person with whom I always interact
Sumeet Goel @GoelSumeet
Very happy & relaxed to be invested with first global pms
Congratulations on super performance, above all transparency and systematic process are unmatchable. One must opt this, if person consider him/her self as an investor. Very happy to be part of this since invested. FG has managed worst year (ie 2022) so efficiently and skillfully.
With so much of volatility in the market, risk management is very important part & considering that FG is doing awesome work!!! Kudos to you Chief
Amit Shukla @amitTalksHere
Truly outstanding. As a retail subscriber to #fghum #smallcase, I can vouch for the Nifty beating returns (8% vs 3%) in last 1 year. Keep up the awesome work @firstglobalsec
We can load above testimonials on site as a scroller, and just below that we can add a section for compliments . Below tweets are comments and praises are related to our content, performance and some our direct compliments to you.
ADIT PATEL @ADITPAT11226924
Good team... Special mention @KarmathNaveen .. he is soo helpful anytime of the day or night..
Bought Peace with FG-Hum.Moving all funds from DIY investing to well managed and diversified PF at low cost.
It has doubled almost, excellent pick.Every small investor must invest in her FG-HUM Smallcase.
Suresh Nair @Suresh_Nair_23
I have 8 small cases and your has been the most rewarding ones .. thank you Devina.
Sayed Masood @SayedM375
There is absolutely no doubt that she is one of the best investors of India in modern times but more importantly, she shares the most sincere and sane advice with retail investors.
Wow Superb Returns🔥 Congratulations Chief for being Number 1 among all PMS!!!
You are one of the sharpest mind in Global Stock Market
Congratulations Devina, results talk in itself!
Congratulations ma’am @devinamehra ! The consistency you have in maintaining the top rank position is outstanding! 👏
Mihir Shah @Mihir41Shah
We are learning More about markets (& Life ) thanks to U than we learnt in our Professional courses.A BIg Thank You, Wish all get Teachers Like You!!
Sumit Sharma @MediaSumit
"The ability to be comfortable with being outside consensus is a superpower in investing...and in life." Devina ji hits the nail on its head!
Majid Ahamed @MajidAhamed1
Congratulations @devinamehra mam! All the best for long term returns as well.
Vinay Kumar @VinayKu05949123
This is the wonderful session I have ever attended till date. One of the most fruitful hour of my life. Devina madam, ur clarity on financial mkts is simply superb.The way u portray the facts supported by "data" about stock mkts is really astonishing.I will listen again.Thanks.
I loved to read your journey, insight and philosophy. It's a pleasure to read and know of your takes on market and life.
Check & follow @devinamehra's timeline for lots of post debunking such rosy stories. Also, she gives amazing 🤩 sector directions/hints.
KLN Murthy @KLNMurthy2016
Good actionable insights, great article!
Suresh Nair @gkumarsuresh
Devina Madam is simply terrific... good knowledge, straight and simple thinking.
Very difficult to emulate such traits. I listen her past interviews from youtube.
One of the brightest minds in the world of finance :)
Radhakrishnan Chonat @RCxNair
📣 Calling all investors! Just had an incredible interview with @devinamehra, Chairperson and MD of First Global. We discussed the importance of global diversification, effective asset allocation, and the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Trust me, you don't want to miss this!
Excellent performance. Flexibility is the key as you have mentioned it earlier also. Cannot have finite rules for infinite mkt opportunities.
To be honest, the insights which Devina madam brings in is very enriching..have learnt a lot from them...
Himanssh Kukreja @Himansh02428907
One of the most accurate analysts :) I always look forward to you interviews mam
Abhijeet Deshpande @AbhijeetD2018
Madam, It is always a treat to read your insight, not only on business but on other topics also!!
Thanks for this wisdom ma'am. Always love hearing your thoughts on everything equity. :-)
Excellent points! Can clearly feel this thread is a product of marination of many books and years of experience. 👍
Kamal thakur @Kamalgt10
Superb !! Your knowledge, analysis & articulation is simply great 👍
Follower on Twitter and Subsciber on YouTube of First Global, really helping me in my investment desicion. Thanks
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