There is no easy way to say this.
The Portfolio Management Services Industry is in a shambles.
No. It's broken.
It's a tale of "naam badey, aur darshan chhotey".
The Industry was born on the promise of superior performance. Superior to Mutual Funds, that is.
But what does the data say?
The industry performance has been abysmal, to say the least.
We have given a table later in this piece, that shows you in crystal clear light, how poorly the industry has performed.
(And don't miss our Conclusion, at the end)
Whether you take 3 months, Year to Date, 1 year, and 3 years.
The Returns (if one can even call them that) have been disgraceful.
All are DOWN for 3 months, YTD and 1 year. Only a couple are marginally positive even on a 3 year basis.
Before we delve into the Performance data of the PMS majors, it's instructive to see what explains this terrible set of Performance Numbers.
Our Analysis shows:
1. Extremely poor/ non existent Risk Management:
Nobody seemed to have heard of any concept called stop losses. It's just "It's a great story at Rs.4000. It's very attractive at Rs. 3000. It's a no-brainer at Rs. 2000".
Dude, you (or rather your clients) are down 50% and you are calling it a no-brainer?
2. Overly concentrated exposures in a handful of stocks:
Many, if not all, had exposures to a handful of stocks. Usually Financials and/or FMCGs. Both sectors have been hit at different points this year.
Concentrated Portfolios may be a reasonable way to manage personal money. But absolutely no way to manage Other People's Money.
In fact, it's downright irresponsible fund management. Nothing less.
3. Very poor analysis of the Business environment:
How could anybody sensible be having 40-60% in Financials, in February when it had become completely clear that the Indian economy was going to get into some degree of stress.
Even a B.Com student knows that in any economic stress, banks take the biggest beating. Always.
4. An irrational, child-like "storification" of investing:
"Asian Paints can grow perennially, irrespective of the economic environment"; "Kotak Bank will continue growing irrespective of industry stress" "This Business has moats", blah blah.
As if valuations don't matter.
Investing, unfortunately, is all about data. Not fairy tales.
One can't manage external money based on stories and tales.
Let's leave something for kids.
Broad Analysis of PMS Performance of major PMS companies
Last 3 Months' Performance Data
The 3M returns of almost all PMS schemes are massively negative in the -10% to -30% range (only First Global's IS50 was up +6.9% and IMAAP was up +6.0% in the same period). Markets were down 19% on a 3M basis.
For example:
- ASK schemes are down 15-19% in the past 3 months
- Motilal Oswal schemes are down 12-30% in the past 3 months
- Alchemy schemes are down 20-27% in the past 3 months
- Marcellus Schemes are down 10% in the 3 months
- Ambit schemes are down 10-20% in the past 3 months
YTD Performance Data
The YTD return of almost all schemes is negative in the -5% to -25% range (First Global's portfolios were UP +9.3 to +15%). The markets were down 18.5% on a YTD basis.
For example:
- ASK schemes are down 15-16% on a YTD basis
- Motilal Oswal schemes are down 18-22% on a YTD basis
- Alchemy schemes are down 15-26% on a YTD basis
- Marcellus Consistent Compounders scheme is down 5% on a YTD basis
- Ambit schemes are down 6-13% on a YTD basis
1-Year Performance Data
The 1-year returns of most of them are negative in the -1% to -28% (First Global IS50 is up +12.5% and IMAAP is up +20%).
For example:
- ASK schemes are down 4-9% on 1-year basis
- Motilal Oswal schemes are down 7-28% on 1-year basis
- Alchemy schemes are down 22-26% on 1-year basis
- Aditya Birla schemes are down 1-19% on 1-year basis
- Ambit schemes are down 1-14% on 1-year basis
3-Year Performance Comparison
The 3-year CAGR returns of most schemes are negative in the -2% to -14% range, while for some it is in the low 2-3% range compared to the NSE 500 Index CAGR return of 0.4%.
For example:
- ASK schemes are up just +2-3% on a 3-year CAGR basis
- Motilal Oswal schemes are down 3-14% on a 3-year CAGR basis
- Alchemy schemes are down 3-6% on a 3-year CAGR basis
- Aditya Birla schemes are down 3-9% on a 3-year CAGR basis
5-Year Performance Comparison
The 5-year CAGR returns of the ones that have reported their performance are very low.
For example:
- The CAGR returns of ASK schemes are in the 7-9% range on 5-year basis
- The CAGR returns of Motilal Oswal schemes are in the 1-6% on 5-year basis
- The CAGR returns of Alchemy schemes are in the 3-5% on 5-year basis
- The CAGR returns of Aditya Birla Schemes are in the 2-3% on a 5-year basis
What's wrong with the lowly Fixed Deposit if this is what you are going to get?
|
Fund/Schemes |
Mar’20 |
Apr’20 |
3M |
YTD |
1Y |
3Y |
5Y |
|
First Global PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FG IS50 |
-7.6% |
15.0% |
6.9% |
15.0% |
12.5% |
12.4% |
15.6% |
|
FG IMAAP |
-3.0% |
7.0% |
6.0% |
9.3% |
20.4% |
12.2% |
13.0% |
|
NSE 500 Index |
-24.0% |
14.5% |
-18.9% |
-18.5% |
-16.0% |
0.4% |
4.8% |
|
ASK PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ASK Indian Entrepreneur Portfolio (IEP) |
-25.2% |
11.1% |
-18.70% |
-15.6% |
-8.60% |
3.40% |
7.40% |
|
ASK India Select Portfolio (ISP) |
-23.5% |
11.2% |
-16.40% |
-14.9% |
-6.00% |
1.50% |
7.10% |
|
ASK Growth Strategy |
NA |
11.6% |
-15.10% |
NA |
-4.30% |
2.90% |
9.30% |
|
Motilal Oswal PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Motilal Oswal NTDOP |
-25.7% |
9.4% |
-22.18% |
-21.4% |
-17.36% |
-2.96% |
6.36% |
|
Motilal Oswal IOP 1 |
-34.9% |
10.1% |
-31.03% |
-22.0% |
-27.89% |
-14.27% |
0.54% |
|
Motilal Oswal Value Portfolio |
-26.5% |
14.9% |
-20.43% |
-20.6% |
-8.43% |
0.50% |
3.41% |
|
Motilal Oswal BOP |
-23.2% |
10.9% |
-19.26% |
-17.8% |
-6.64% |
NA |
NA |
|
Motilal Oswal IOP 2 |
-30.3% |
16.3% |
-26.49% |
-20.6% |
-24.89% |
- |
- |
|
Motilal Focused Midcap |
|
14.6% |
-11.5% |
14.6% |
|
|
|
|
Alchemy PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alchemy Select Stock |
-31.2% |
9.3% |
-26.50% |
-25.6% |
-24.90% |
-2.60% |
5.30% |
|
Alchemy High Growth |
-28.3% |
7.9% |
-25.90% |
-24.5% |
-26.10% |
-6.30% |
3.10% |
|
Alchemy Leaders |
-21.8% |
10.4% |
-20.10% |
-14.9% |
-22.20% |
- |
- |
|
Aditya Birla Capital/Money PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aditya Birla Capital CEP |
-25.4% |
12.5% |
-20.46% |
-20.3% |
-13.71% |
-6.52% |
3.28% |
|
Aditya Birla Capital SSP |
-27.9% |
11.0% |
-23.89% |
-21.6% |
-19.33% |
-8.86% |
2.40% |
|
Aditya Birla Capital Innovation |
-22.7% |
16.2% |
-12.08% |
-9.6% |
-0.27% |
- |
- |
|
Aditya Birla Capital India Special Opp |
-22.7% |
11.6% |
-15.11% |
-11.9% |
-3.95% |
- |
- |
|
Aditya Birla Capital Top 200 Core Equity |
-22.9% |
14.9% |
-13.31% |
-12.6% |
-3.42% |
5.04% |
- |
|
Aditya Birla Money Core & Satellite |
-26.7% |
11.9% |
-20.89% |
-16.3% |
-11.97% |
-2.56% |
NA |
|
Aditya Birla Money India Consumption |
-22.0% |
7.4% |
-18.81% |
-17.2% |
-11.69% |
NA |
NA |
|
Axis PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Axis Brand Equity |
-22.1% |
9.3% |
-17.58% |
-16.5% |
-5.63% |
5.62% |
- |
|
Axis core and satellite |
-21.3% |
9.7% |
-13.71% |
-15.8% |
|
|
|
|
Marcellus PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marcellus Consistent Compounders |
-15.9% |
8.5% |
-10.10% |
-5.4% |
16.60% |
- |
- |
|
Marcellus Little Champs |
-26.1% |
17.4% |
-9.80% |
NA |
- |
- |
- |
|
AccuraCap PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Accuracap Alpha10 |
-16.6% |
10.7% |
-8.47% |
-7.8% |
-2.13% |
6.50% |
8.31% |
|
Accuracap PicoPower |
-26.8% |
13.4% |
-18.15% |
-11.1% |
-14.71% |
-7.27% |
2.12% |
|
Accuracap Alphagen |
-20.2% |
13.0% |
-11.50% |
-10.4% |
-7.54% |
0.17% |
- |
|
SageOne Investment Advisors PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SageOne Core Portfolio |
NA |
14.2% |
-20.60% |
NA |
-12.70% |
-2.20% |
5.20% |
|
SageOne Diversified Portfolio |
NA |
14.0% |
-21.30% |
NA |
-16.60% |
-1.50% |
- |
|
SageOne Small Microcap Portfolio |
NA |
14.4% |
-14.00% |
NA |
-3.60% |
- |
- |
|
Ambit PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ambit Coffee CAN |
-13.3% |
8.2% |
-10.30% |
-6.1% |
10.70% |
- |
- |
|
Ambit Good and Clean |
-27.7% |
18.8% |
-13.60% |
-12.8% |
-0.80% |
- |
- |
|
Ambit Emerging Giants |
-27.4% |
13.4% |
-20.30% |
-8.1% |
-12.60% |
3.80% |
- |
|
AlfaAccurate PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AlfaAccurate AAA IOP/AAA PMS |
-24.7% |
12.8% |
-17.5% |
-14.0% |
-11.8% |
-1.2% |
6.5% |
|
AlfaAccurate AAA Focus Plan |
|
12.8% |
-16.5% |
16.3% |
-8.1% |
0.9% |
6.8% |
|
Solidarity Advisors Prudence |
-28.1% |
NA |
-25.6% |
-28.2% |
-15.6% |
2.4% |
NA |
|
NJ Advisory PMS Schemes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ Advisory Blue-chip |
-15.5% |
11.6% |
-7.21% |
-5.1% |
-3.09% |
- |
- |
|
NJ Advisory Dynamic ETF |
-11.6% |
|
-13.4% |
-13.4% |
-10.2% |
NA |
NA |
|
NJ Advisory Freedom ETF |
-22.7% |
|
-26.8% |
-26.8% |
-26.2% |
NA |
NA |
|
2Point2 Long Term Value Fund |
-33.0% |
14.8% |
-25.40% |
-19.4% |
-12.20% |
4.40% |
- |
|
White OAK India Pioneers Equity |
-22.5% |
12.4% |
-15.00% |
-8.2% |
-3.00% |
- |
- |
|
Dalal & Broacha Long Term Growth |
-24.6% |
13.6% |
-17.52% |
-13.0% |
-1.15% |
1.63% |
4.46% |
|
Basant Maheshwari Equity Fund |
-30.4% |
3.2% |
-27.63% |
-25.2% |
-11.04% |
|
|
|
O3 Core |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
O3 Core Value Regular |
-20.5% |
12.5% |
-16.61% |
-17.2% |
- |
- |
- |
|
O3 Core Value Concentrated |
-19.2% |
11.4% |
-15.11% |
-16.6% |
-13.33% |
- |
- |
|
Edelweiss |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edelweiss Focused Small-cap |
-28.4% |
14.0% |
-21.50% |
-14.9% |
-18.90% |
-11.10% |
|
|
Edelweiss Rubik Equity Portfolio Multicap |
NA |
NA |
0.0% |
NA |
-5.4% |
- |
- |
Source: PMS Bazaar, PMS AIF World, SEBI
Conclusions:
The above is nothing but data talking.
And what it's saying is that all PMS managers have demonstrated zero ability to deliver reasonable returns or manage risk.
They have simply spun a series of nice stories with zero backing of data, rational thought or even basic commonsense.
Does this sound harsh?
Sure, it does.
But the Performance Data is harsher.
Isn't it?
In this game, you can't fail at both and call yourself a Fund Manager.
From the desk of
Devina Mehra
If you want any help at all in your wealth creation journey, in managing your Investments, just drop us a line via this link and we will be right by your side, super quick!
Or WhatsApp us on +91 8850169753
Chat soon!
Economists Think Dollar's Fall May Explain the Recent ‘Rally’ by Steve Liesman
Einstein taught us about relativity in nature. Now come Devina Mehra and Shankar Sharma of First Global to teach us about relativity in financial markets -- and raise some serious questions about just what is driving stock prices.
First Global reports are quite credible and, on occasion, more than that.
What prompts this mention is Intel's earnings report and the fact that First Global has had a pretty good bead on the company and its stock.
AMD up again following First Global upgrade to ‘buy’ (AMD) By Tomi Kilgore
Analyst Kuldeep Koul at First Global upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to "buy" from "outperform," given the "exceptional traction" that the chipmaker's Opteron line of processors has been able to get.
Baidu Climbs on First Global’s ‘Outperform’ Outlook
Baidu Inc., the operator of China’s most-used Internet search engine, rose to the highest price in two weeks after First Global rated the shares “outperform? in new coverage.
Personality counts: Walmart's frugal, but Target charms
"It's better to take a slight hit on [profit] margins and keep on moving and inventing," says First Global Securities. And at least for now, Target is inventing in a way that appeals to consumers with money to spend.
Dead Batteries
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
Bipinchandra Dugam @bipinchandra90
@devinamehra @firtglobalsec
invested in both GFF-GTS and Super I50. Thank you very much for such wonderful investing experience with completely new approach. In my 15years of investing first product I felt which close to what customer want.
Shishir Kapadia @shishirkapadia1
@firstglobalsec @devinamehra
by far you are the best, I have not come across transparency, acumen, global expertise, exposure, protection of capital, delivering return from any fund/ fund managers. Invested very small size in 3 products will keep on increasing it over the period
Piyush Bhargava @PiyushB88762654
@devinamehra @firstglobalsec
Thanks you team FG specially Devina, my investment doubled in less than 3 years in SDPB As a investors & PMS distributor of your product looking to have a long-term relationship with the company.
@KarmathNaveen the person with whom I always interact
Sumeet Goel @GoelSumeet
Very happy & relaxed to be invested with first global pms
Shishir Kapadia@shishirkapadia1
Congratulations on super performance, above all transparency and systematic process are unmatchable.
One must opt this, if person consider him/her self as an investor. Very happy to be part of this since invested. FG has managed worst year (ie 2022) so efficiently and skillfully.
SY @SachinY95185924
With so much of volatility in the market, risk management is very important part & considering that FG is doing awesome work!!! Kudos to you Chief
Amit Shukla @amitTalksHere
Truly outstanding. As a retail subscriber to #fghum #smallcase, I can vouch for the Nifty beating returns (8% vs 3%) in last 1 year. Keep up the awesome work @firstglobalsec
We can load above testimonials on site as a scroller, and just below that we can add a section for compliments . Below tweets are comments and praises are related to our content, performance and some our direct compliments to you.
ADIT PATEL @ADITPAT11226924
Good team...
Special mention @KarmathNaveen .. he is soo helpful anytime of the day or night..
Hindustani @highmettle
Bought Peace with FG-Hum.Moving all funds from DIY investing to well managed and diversified PF at low cost.
It has doubled almost, excellent pick.Every small investor must invest in her FG-HUM Smallcase.
Suresh Nair @Suresh_Nair_23
I have 8 small cases and your has been the most rewarding ones .. thank you Devina.
Sayed Masood @SayedM375
There is absolutely no doubt that she is one of the best investors of India in modern times but more importantly, she shares the most sincere and sane advice with retail investors.
SY @SachinY95185924
Wow Superb Returns🔥 Congratulations Chief for being Number 1 among all PMS!!!
You are one of the sharpest mind in Global Stock Market
AnupamM @moitraanupam
Congratulations Devina, results talk in itself!
Abhishek @simplyabhi21
Congratulations ma’am @devinamehra ! The consistency you have in maintaining the top rank position is outstanding! 👏
Mihir Shah @Mihir41Shah
We are learning More about markets (& Life ) thanks to U than we learnt in our Professional courses.A BIg Thank You, Wish all get Teachers Like You!!
Sumit Sharma @MediaSumit
"The ability to be comfortable with being outside consensus is a superpower in investing...and in life." Devina ji hits the nail on its head!
Majid Ahamed @MajidAhamed1
Congratulations @devinamehra mam! All the best for long term returns as well.
Vinay Kumar @VinayKu05949123
This is the wonderful session I have ever attended till date. One of the most fruitful hour of my life. Devina madam, ur clarity on financial mkts is simply superb.The way u portray the facts supported by "data" about stock mkts is really astonishing.I will listen again.Thanks.
VIJAY @drippingashes
I loved to read your journey, insight and philosophy. It's a pleasure to read and know of your takes on market and life.
MNC🏹 @Focus_SME
Check & follow @devinamehra's timeline for lots of post debunking such rosy stories. Also, she gives amazing 🤩 sector directions/hints.
KLN Murthy @KLNMurthy2016
Good actionable insights, great article!
Suresh Nair @gkumarsuresh
Devina Madam is simply terrific... good knowledge, straight and simple thinking.
Very difficult to emulate such traits. I listen her past interviews from youtube.
Respect...!!!!
DD @AliensDelight
One of the brightest minds in the world of finance :)
Radhakrishnan Chonat @RCxNair
📣 Calling all investors! Just had an incredible interview with @devinamehra, Chairperson and MD of First Global. We discussed the importance of global diversification, effective asset allocation, and the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Trust me, you don't want to miss this!
siddarthmohta @siddarthmohta
Excellent performance. Flexibility is the key as you have mentioned it earlier also. Cannot have finite rules for infinite mkt opportunities.
Boom (বুম)@Booombaastic
To be honest, the insights which Devina madam brings in is very enriching..have learnt a lot from them...
Himanssh Kukreja @Himansh02428907
One of the most accurate analysts :)
I always look forward to you interviews mam
Abhijeet Deshpande @AbhijeetD2018
Madam, It is always a treat to read your insight, not only on business but on other topics also!!
Dada.AI @dada_on_twit
Thanks for this wisdom ma'am. Always love hearing your thoughts on everything equity. :-)
adil @zinndadil
Excellent points!
Can clearly feel this thread is a product of marination of many books and years of experience. 👍
Kamal thakur @Kamalgt10
Superb !!
Your knowledge, analysis & articulation is simply great 👍
Tanay @Tanay36232730
Follower on Twitter and Subsciber on YouTube of First Global, really helping me in my investment desicion. Thanks
Copyright 2019, All Rights Reserved. Developed By : Hvantage Technologies Inc. Maintain By : Aarav Infotech
