Our September '20 Performance
Global Funds' Performance: September '20
The Global Freedom Fund SPC - Global Tactical Strategies SP (GFF-GTS) was down 3.4%
Our Global Portfolio product, the GMAAP was down 4.4%
Vs
MSCI World that was down 3.4%
The S&P 500 was down 3.9%
And, the NASDAQ (no benchmark, but still useful to keep an eye on it) was down 5.7%
Global Funds' Performance: Calendar 2020 YTD
GFF-GTS (US Dollar terms): +26.4%
GMAAP (US Dollar terms): +25.8%
Vs
MSCI World: -0.8%
The S&P 500: +3.2%
Again, these numbers have come with relatively low volatility.
Annualised volatility has been 24-31% for our products in this turbulent year versus 33.5% for the MSCI World and 42.8% for the S&P 500!
India PMS Performance: September '20
The Pure Equity India Super 50 (IS50) was up 6.1%
While the Nifty was down 1.2%
NSE 500 was down 0.3%
The Asset Allocation India Multi Asset Allocation Portfolio (IMAAP) was up 0.82%
And CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index was down 0.2% (this is our Benchmark for the IMAAP)
India PMS Performance: Calendar 2020 YTD
The IS50 is up 21.7%
Vs
NIFTY 50 that is down 6.5%
NIFTY 500 that is down 6.2%
We are now more than 28% ahead of the market YTD!
The IMAAP is up 10%
Vs
CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index that's up 2.3%
Once again, we have done even better on a volatility adjusted basis.
The annualized volatility for IS50 is 20.9% as against 38.8% for the NSE 500 and nearly 41% for the Nifty. The volatility for the IMAAP is a mere 11.5% against 19% for the CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index.
Remember how it felt when you entered your mid-forties and were invited to a game of cricket in the neighbourhood. You were playing against kids who were in their teens: with fresh legs, strong shoulders, unlimited stamina, complete arrogance.
You measured your run, did some perfunctory loosening up and then came charging in: the ball went wide outside the off stump.
The slip fielders rolled their eyes. "This old man is over. We just need to make him bowl one over and we put him to pasture at fine leg".
You knew exactly what these idiots were thinking. You have been around the block (or cricket fields) several times.
You dug Deep. You looked at the guy's stance. You knew exactly what he was thinking. You knew his wide open stance made him vulnerable.
And you came and bowled him your best ever late inswing, delivered from wide off the crease, to fox him.
It took his off stump.
Ah... that felt good, didn't it...
September felt like that.
When the young kids start telling you "Hey old man, we know markets better", markets deliver a nice little curve ball.
And trust us: kids haven't the faintest clue how to play these: they have been brought up on a steady diet of easy pickings since April this year.
It is exactly in these situations that the market changes.
And it did.
Markets became tricky. Even treacherous - specially, the US.
India was no better.
But we did okay.
You know why?
Because we are Hares. With Grey Hair.
When things become very easy in investing, you know things are about to become very difficult.
Which is why we were prepared to deal with whatever the markets served up.
You see, we are not the kind of fund managers that crave a flat pitch bull market, in order to make a hundred.
I mean: anybody can make a hundred on a flat pitch. Anybody can make money in a trending bull market.
We actually want, from time to time, tricky markets. That is what really shows up the flat pitch bullies against real skill.
It is these kinds of markets that demonstrate the fact that dumb, passive Investing can beat dumb active Investing.
But dumb passive Investing can never beat smart active Investing.
And what do "Smart, Active" managers have over dumb passive Investing?
Mental Models. Forged over decades of playing on tough tracks.
We have a few, around here:
Avoid the Big Losses
Play Everything. Believe Nothing
Stay Hungry. Stay Hare-ish
First the Big Picture of our September performance.
Global Performance Analysis
By late August '20, the equivalent of the shoe shine boy giving stock tips, had become apparent.
Friends starting sending us their option trading statements, showing us the kind of amazing gains they had been making in the last week of August.
They are not shoeshine boys. They drive Mercs.
But they haven't the faintest clue about option trading.
And now here is where it gets interesting: we have built systems that track the level of speculative activity, quite closely, using a variety of indicators.
By late August, early September, they had started flashing somewhat red.
So what did we do?
Well, we dialed back (a bit) on risk.
We bought some Portfolio Insurance in the GFF GTS.
Over the past couple of months, we had bought some excellent non technology plays.
Therefore we went into September not with the giddy-headed exuberance of the un-initiated, but with the grumbling visage of Constant Questioners.
You see, that's our second BIG Mental Model:
Play Everything. Believe Nothing.
This Mental Model helps. Trust us, this is what has helped us come out ahead of every single major bear market in the past 25 years.
Every single one.
Anyway, let's get back to present day:
Thanks to the kind of protective strategies we put on (in hindsight we should have put on even more), we sat back and saw the NASDAQ plunge around 12-13% in September.
Of course, we took some hits.
But we will take the final September results that came out: down ~3-4% after enjoying a 50% upswing since April, and solid YTD performance.
By the last week of September, we saw with satisfaction that we had largely escaped any significant damage to our accumulated gains.
India Performance Analysis
Our India numbers were... well... bloody good! (Sorry, this is a repeat from the July letter. And the August letter).
On a wide, wide basket of stocks.(Kind of a repeat of the July& August letters).
None of this "small list of high conviction" bs, for us. (Again, this is a straight lift from our July & August letters).
India's pitch was a deceptive one, in September. It was a two-paced. The large caps were hurting. The small were frisky.
In face of such deception, we mixed caution with aggression: we ran with the Hares (we are the Hares), and hunted with the Hounds.
The net result was that, we ended the month 6% up, while the NIFTY and the NIFTY 500, both closed down.
And this, despite having this stock called GMM Pfaudler.
Take a look at the Comparative Performance (till August, 2020, which we will update once we have September numbers for everybody else)
We enjoyed September. We seriously did.
And our Human+ Machine delivers these Returns with the lowest possible risk.
As we've said before
We do not run "High Conviction" risk.
We do not run "Storification" risk.
We do not run "High Concentration" risk.
And yet we deliver.
Or maybe, that's why we deliver.
That is the beauty of our proprietary Human+Machine investment model.
For those who aren't invested with us, but want in, just drop us a line on https://bit.ly/2V0RxAx and we will get in touch quicker than the price rise in Ruchi Soya.
By the way, you can also WhatsApp us on +91 8850169753
Chat soon!
From Your Friends at First Global
Trusted Financial Advisors to some of the world's largest Funds, Institutions & Family Offices, for 30 years
https://www.firstglobalsec.com/
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Einstein taught us about relativity in nature. Now come Devina Mehra and Shankar Sharma of First Global to teach us about relativity in financial markets -- and raise some serious questions about just what is driving stock prices.
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What prompts this mention is Intel's earnings report and the fact that First Global has had a pretty good bead on the company and its stock.
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Personality counts: Walmart's frugal, but Target charms
"It's better to take a slight hit on [profit] margins and keep on moving and inventing," says First Global Securities. And at least for now, Target is inventing in a way that appeals to consumers with money to spend.
Dead Batteries
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
Bipinchandra Dugam @bipinchandra90
@devinamehra @firtglobalsec
invested in both GFF-GTS and Super I50. Thank you very much for such wonderful investing experience with completely new approach. In my 15years of investing first product I felt which close to what customer want.
Shishir Kapadia @shishirkapadia1
@firstglobalsec @devinamehra
by far you are the best, I have not come across transparency, acumen, global expertise, exposure, protection of capital, delivering return from any fund/ fund managers. Invested very small size in 3 products will keep on increasing it over the period
Piyush Bhargava @PiyushB88762654
@devinamehra @firstglobalsec
Thanks you team FG specially Devina, my investment doubled in less than 3 years in SDPB As a investors & PMS distributor of your product looking to have a long-term relationship with the company.
@KarmathNaveen the person with whom I always interact
Sumeet Goel @GoelSumeet
Very happy & relaxed to be invested with first global pms
Shishir Kapadia@shishirkapadia1
Congratulations on super performance, above all transparency and systematic process are unmatchable.
One must opt this, if person consider him/her self as an investor. Very happy to be part of this since invested. FG has managed worst year (ie 2022) so efficiently and skillfully.
SY @SachinY95185924
With so much of volatility in the market, risk management is very important part & considering that FG is doing awesome work!!! Kudos to you Chief
Amit Shukla @amitTalksHere
Truly outstanding. As a retail subscriber to #fghum #smallcase, I can vouch for the Nifty beating returns (8% vs 3%) in last 1 year. Keep up the awesome work @firstglobalsec
We can load above testimonials on site as a scroller, and just below that we can add a section for compliments . Below tweets are comments and praises are related to our content, performance and some our direct compliments to you.
ADIT PATEL @ADITPAT11226924
Good team...
Special mention @KarmathNaveen .. he is soo helpful anytime of the day or night..
Hindustani @highmettle
Bought Peace with FG-Hum.Moving all funds from DIY investing to well managed and diversified PF at low cost.
It has doubled almost, excellent pick.Every small investor must invest in her FG-HUM Smallcase.
Suresh Nair @Suresh_Nair_23
I have 8 small cases and your has been the most rewarding ones .. thank you Devina.
Sayed Masood @SayedM375
There is absolutely no doubt that she is one of the best investors of India in modern times but more importantly, she shares the most sincere and sane advice with retail investors.
SY @SachinY95185924
Wow Superb Returns🔥 Congratulations Chief for being Number 1 among all PMS!!!
You are one of the sharpest mind in Global Stock Market
AnupamM @moitraanupam
Congratulations Devina, results talk in itself!
Abhishek @simplyabhi21
Congratulations ma’am @devinamehra ! The consistency you have in maintaining the top rank position is outstanding! 👏
Mihir Shah @Mihir41Shah
We are learning More about markets (& Life ) thanks to U than we learnt in our Professional courses.A BIg Thank You, Wish all get Teachers Like You!!
Sumit Sharma @MediaSumit
"The ability to be comfortable with being outside consensus is a superpower in investing...and in life." Devina ji hits the nail on its head!
Majid Ahamed @MajidAhamed1
Congratulations @devinamehra mam! All the best for long term returns as well.
Vinay Kumar @VinayKu05949123
This is the wonderful session I have ever attended till date. One of the most fruitful hour of my life. Devina madam, ur clarity on financial mkts is simply superb.The way u portray the facts supported by "data" about stock mkts is really astonishing.I will listen again.Thanks.
VIJAY @drippingashes
I loved to read your journey, insight and philosophy. It's a pleasure to read and know of your takes on market and life.
MNC🏹 @Focus_SME
Check & follow @devinamehra's timeline for lots of post debunking such rosy stories. Also, she gives amazing 🤩 sector directions/hints.
KLN Murthy @KLNMurthy2016
Good actionable insights, great article!
Suresh Nair @gkumarsuresh
Devina Madam is simply terrific... good knowledge, straight and simple thinking.
Very difficult to emulate such traits. I listen her past interviews from youtube.
Respect...!!!!
DD @AliensDelight
One of the brightest minds in the world of finance :)
Radhakrishnan Chonat @RCxNair
📣 Calling all investors! Just had an incredible interview with @devinamehra, Chairperson and MD of First Global. We discussed the importance of global diversification, effective asset allocation, and the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Trust me, you don't want to miss this!
siddarthmohta @siddarthmohta
Excellent performance. Flexibility is the key as you have mentioned it earlier also. Cannot have finite rules for infinite mkt opportunities.
Boom (বুম)@Booombaastic
To be honest, the insights which Devina madam brings in is very enriching..have learnt a lot from them...
Himanssh Kukreja @Himansh02428907
One of the most accurate analysts :)
I always look forward to you interviews mam
Abhijeet Deshpande @AbhijeetD2018
Madam, It is always a treat to read your insight, not only on business but on other topics also!!
Dada.AI @dada_on_twit
Thanks for this wisdom ma'am. Always love hearing your thoughts on everything equity. :-)
adil @zinndadil
Excellent points!
Can clearly feel this thread is a product of marination of many books and years of experience. 👍
Kamal thakur @Kamalgt10
Superb !!
Your knowledge, analysis & articulation is simply great 👍
Tanay @Tanay36232730
Follower on Twitter and Subsciber on YouTube of First Global, really helping me in my investment desicion. Thanks
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