Our January '21 Performance
Global Funds' Performance: January '21
The First Global Global Freedom Fund - Global Tactical Strategies (FG GFF-GTS) is up 1.3%
Our Global Portfolio product, the GMAAP is up 2.7%
Vs
MSCI ACWI Index that is down 0.4%
Global Funds' Performance: Calendar 2020
FG GFF-GTS (US Dollar terms) was up 36.0%
GMAAP (US Dollar terms) was up 35.8%
Vs
MSCI ACWI Index that was up 14.3%
Our performance came with relatively low volatility.
Annualised volatility was around 22% for our products in the turbulent year, 2020, versus 30% for the MSCI ACWI Index and 37% for the S&P 500!
India PMS Performance: January '21
The Pure Equity India Super 50 (IS50) is flat
While NSE 500 is down 1.9%
The Asset Allocation India Multi Asset Allocation Portfolio (IMAAP) is down 0.9%
And CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index (our benchmark for IMAAP) is down 0.5%
India PMS Performance: Calendar 2020
The IS50 is up 31.1%
Vs
NIFTY 50 that is up 15.4%
NIFTY 500 that is up 15.6%
The IMAAP is up 16.5%
Vs
CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index that was up 15.0%
In 2020, the volatility for IS50 was 19% as against 33% for the NSE 500 and nearly 35% for the Nifty. The volatility for the IMAAP was a mere 10.5% against 16.2% for the CRISIL Moderate Hybrid Index.
Skating well on January ice
What we saw in January was something that has been in the works for the past several months: A general souring of mood. An onset of fatigue. A frenzy of speculation.
A quick look at the Tech heavyweights, from August-September 2020, shows the general lethargy in large cap tech: most, barring Apple, have done nothing since then.
The action shifted to the second and third tier tech names. With some eye-popping returns coming through in the last 2-3 months.
While we have participated in some of the excesses (it is perfectly okay to participate in bubbles. As long as you do not start believing in them!), we have done so with great care and scepticism.
Being wide eyed believers is something that is simply not us.
Therefore from September, we have generally been good boys, and have been careful not to lose money even if it has meant sacrificing some speculative upside.
In line with that general stance, in January, we kept our capital intact in markets that lost capital for people, broadly speaking.
Of course, we would be failing in our duty if we didn't highlight our "Out of the park Winner of the month": Macerich, a REIT. Yes, you read that right. A REIT that doubled in value in a month!
More on this down here.
Global Performance Analysis
Our positioning in our Global Fund and Segregated Managed Accounts-PMS remained largely what it has been over the last few months. Emerging Markets dominate, US is now around 28% weight.
Fixed Income and REITs occupy the largest weight in our allocations, in the past 8 months.
We had some great winners in January.
For example, Macerich: this featured in the hallowed list of "short squeezed" stocks: it's a REIT, paying regular dividend, yielding 7%, and yet, these idiot hedgies were shorting the hell out of it. Serves them right. We gratefully accepted tech-stock returns from our lowly REIT, and exited (+80%).
Others on our January Honor roll were: Bitcoin (MSTR +60%), Palantir (+50%), Jumia Tech (+39%), Tencent (+21%), Meituan Dianpi (+21%), Upwork (+20%), Ganfeng Lithium (+18%), ROKU (+17%) & Hong Kong Stock Exchange (+17%).
Our global spread, across markets and asset classes, helped cushion the creeping ugliness in the NASDAQ.
Added to this global spread, was a layer of Portfolio Insurance, via our TIPP Tech: Tactical Insurance for Portfolio Protection Strategy.
We have had these protections on, since September, and they have helped us in the down months like October '20 and January '21.
As you all well know, the cornerstone of our Investment Management principle is Loss Aversion.
India Performance Analysis
After the October-November '20 silliness of the leveraged financials rally, which we sat out, and gave up some of our gargantuan alpha, India reverted to a more sensible market, from December, which continued into January '21.
The top performing stocks in January for us were Tata Elxsi (+44%), Tata Motors (+31%), Sequent Scientific (+23%), Alkyl Amines (+23%), Balaji Amines (+20%), IndiaMart (+11%), JK Cement (+11%). So, it was a decent outing.
That said, India looked fragile, in relation to other Emerging Markets: hence our stance is to stay away from the area that can inflict the maximum damage: Banks and NBFCs. We own just two small Positions here: Yes Bank and RBL, both offering some optionality in a Sector that remains a volatile, risky space, even now.
Our strategy continues to be one of owning a clutch of low-correlation plays, avoiding higher risk areas of the market, and keeping things tight and safe, instead of loose and unsafe.
To reiterate, the way we do things around here are:
Avoid the Big Losses
Be the "House", not the "High Rolle"
Play Everything. Believe Nothing
Stay Nimble. Stay Hare-ish
Take a look at the Comparative Performance till January 2021.
And our Human+ Machine delivers these Returns with the lowest possible risk.
As we've said before.
We do not run "High Conviction" risk.
We do not run "Storification" risk.
We do not run "High Concentration" risk.
And yet we deliver.
Or maybe, that's why we deliver.
That is the beauty of our proprietary Human+Machine investment model.
For those who aren't invested with us, but want in, just drop us a line on https://bit.ly/3orHmQN and we will drop you an email, as quick as a Bumrah yorker.
By the way, you can also WhatsApp us on +91 88501 69753
Chat soon!
From Your Friends at First Global
Trusted Financial Advisors to some of the world's largest Funds, Institutions & Family Offices, for 30 years
Economists Think Dollar's Fall May Explain the Recent ‘Rally’ by Steve Liesman
Einstein taught us about relativity in nature. Now come Devina Mehra and Shankar Sharma of First Global to teach us about relativity in financial markets -- and raise some serious questions about just what is driving stock prices.
First Global reports are quite credible and, on occasion, more than that.
What prompts this mention is Intel's earnings report and the fact that First Global has had a pretty good bead on the company and its stock.
AMD up again following First Global upgrade to ‘buy’ (AMD) By Tomi Kilgore
Analyst Kuldeep Koul at First Global upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to "buy" from "outperform," given the "exceptional traction" that the chipmaker's Opteron line of processors has been able to get.
Baidu Climbs on First Global’s ‘Outperform’ Outlook
Baidu Inc., the operator of China’s most-used Internet search engine, rose to the highest price in two weeks after First Global rated the shares “outperform? in new coverage.
Personality counts: Walmart's frugal, but Target charms
"It's better to take a slight hit on [profit] margins and keep on moving and inventing," says First Global Securities. And at least for now, Target is inventing in a way that appeals to consumers with money to spend.
Dead Batteries
At 11 times trailing earnings, Energizer is cheaper; Gillette's multiple is 25. But cheaper doesn't mean better, says First Global.
Bipinchandra Dugam @bipinchandra90
@devinamehra @firtglobalsec
invested in both GFF-GTS and Super I50. Thank you very much for such wonderful investing experience with completely new approach. In my 15years of investing first product I felt which close to what customer want.
Shishir Kapadia @shishirkapadia1
@firstglobalsec @devinamehra
by far you are the best, I have not come across transparency, acumen, global expertise, exposure, protection of capital, delivering return from any fund/ fund managers. Invested very small size in 3 products will keep on increasing it over the period
Piyush Bhargava @PiyushB88762654
@devinamehra @firstglobalsec
Thanks you team FG specially Devina, my investment doubled in less than 3 years in SDPB As a investors & PMS distributor of your product looking to have a long-term relationship with the company.
@KarmathNaveen the person with whom I always interact
Sumeet Goel @GoelSumeet
Very happy & relaxed to be invested with first global pms
Shishir Kapadia@shishirkapadia1
Congratulations on super performance, above all transparency and systematic process are unmatchable.
One must opt this, if person consider him/her self as an investor. Very happy to be part of this since invested. FG has managed worst year (ie 2022) so efficiently and skillfully.
SY @SachinY95185924
With so much of volatility in the market, risk management is very important part & considering that FG is doing awesome work!!! Kudos to you Chief
Amit Shukla @amitTalksHere
Truly outstanding. As a retail subscriber to #fghum #smallcase, I can vouch for the Nifty beating returns (8% vs 3%) in last 1 year. Keep up the awesome work @firstglobalsec
We can load above testimonials on site as a scroller, and just below that we can add a section for compliments . Below tweets are comments and praises are related to our content, performance and some our direct compliments to you.
ADIT PATEL @ADITPAT11226924
Good team...
Special mention @KarmathNaveen .. he is soo helpful anytime of the day or night..
Hindustani @highmettle
Bought Peace with FG-Hum.Moving all funds from DIY investing to well managed and diversified PF at low cost.
It has doubled almost, excellent pick.Every small investor must invest in her FG-HUM Smallcase.
Suresh Nair @Suresh_Nair_23
I have 8 small cases and your has been the most rewarding ones .. thank you Devina.
Sayed Masood @SayedM375
There is absolutely no doubt that she is one of the best investors of India in modern times but more importantly, she shares the most sincere and sane advice with retail investors.
SY @SachinY95185924
Wow Superb Returns🔥 Congratulations Chief for being Number 1 among all PMS!!!
You are one of the sharpest mind in Global Stock Market
AnupamM @moitraanupam
Congratulations Devina, results talk in itself!
Abhishek @simplyabhi21
Congratulations ma’am @devinamehra ! The consistency you have in maintaining the top rank position is outstanding! 👏
Mihir Shah @Mihir41Shah
We are learning More about markets (& Life ) thanks to U than we learnt in our Professional courses.A BIg Thank You, Wish all get Teachers Like You!!
Sumit Sharma @MediaSumit
"The ability to be comfortable with being outside consensus is a superpower in investing...and in life." Devina ji hits the nail on its head!
Majid Ahamed @MajidAhamed1
Congratulations @devinamehra mam! All the best for long term returns as well.
Vinay Kumar @VinayKu05949123
This is the wonderful session I have ever attended till date. One of the most fruitful hour of my life. Devina madam, ur clarity on financial mkts is simply superb.The way u portray the facts supported by "data" about stock mkts is really astonishing.I will listen again.Thanks.
VIJAY @drippingashes
I loved to read your journey, insight and philosophy. It's a pleasure to read and know of your takes on market and life.
MNC🏹 @Focus_SME
Check & follow @devinamehra's timeline for lots of post debunking such rosy stories. Also, she gives amazing 🤩 sector directions/hints.
KLN Murthy @KLNMurthy2016
Good actionable insights, great article!
Suresh Nair @gkumarsuresh
Devina Madam is simply terrific... good knowledge, straight and simple thinking.
Very difficult to emulate such traits. I listen her past interviews from youtube.
Respect...!!!!
DD @AliensDelight
One of the brightest minds in the world of finance :)
Radhakrishnan Chonat @RCxNair
📣 Calling all investors! Just had an incredible interview with @devinamehra, Chairperson and MD of First Global. We discussed the importance of global diversification, effective asset allocation, and the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Trust me, you don't want to miss this!
siddarthmohta @siddarthmohta
Excellent performance. Flexibility is the key as you have mentioned it earlier also. Cannot have finite rules for infinite mkt opportunities.
Boom (বুম)@Booombaastic
To be honest, the insights which Devina madam brings in is very enriching..have learnt a lot from them...
Himanssh Kukreja @Himansh02428907
One of the most accurate analysts :)
I always look forward to you interviews mam
Abhijeet Deshpande @AbhijeetD2018
Madam, It is always a treat to read your insight, not only on business but on other topics also!!
Dada.AI @dada_on_twit
Thanks for this wisdom ma'am. Always love hearing your thoughts on everything equity. :-)
adil @zinndadil
Excellent points!
Can clearly feel this thread is a product of marination of many books and years of experience. 👍
Kamal thakur @Kamalgt10
Superb !!
Your knowledge, analysis & articulation is simply great 👍
Tanay @Tanay36232730
Follower on Twitter and Subsciber on YouTube of First Global, really helping me in my investment desicion. Thanks
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